The Valero Texas Open presents an interesting dynamic with 30 players already qualified for the Masters while the rest of the field is battling for one final chance to punch a ticket to Augusta National next week.
The tournament begins Thursday at TPC San Antonio and includes four of the top 10 players in the Official World Golf Ranking: No. 2 Rory McIlroy, No. 8 Brian Harman, No. 9 Ludvig Aberg and No. 10 Max Homa.
Our golf experts break down the event and provide their favorite prop picks along with best bets to win this week.
VALERO TEXAS OPEN
Location: San Antonio, April 4-7
Course: TPC San Antonio, Oaks Course (Par 72, 7,438 yards)
Purse: $9.2M (Winner: $1.656M)
Defending Champion: Corey Conners
FedEx Cup Leader: Scottie Scheffler
HOW TO FOLLOW
TV: Thursday-Friday, 4-7 p.m. ET (Golf Channel); Saturday, 1-3:30 p.m. (GC), 3:30-6 p.m. (NBC); Sunday, 1-2:30 p.m. (GC), 2:30-6 p.m. (NBC)
Streaming (ESPN+): Thursday-Friday, 8:15 a.m.-7 p.m. ET; Saturday-Sunday, 10 a.m.-6 p.m.
X: @ValeroTXOpen
PROP PICKS
–Hideki Matsuyama to Beat Jordan Spieth (-105 at DraftKings): Spieth won the event three years ago, but his current form doesn’t portend great success this week as he comes in off consecutive missed cuts. Matsuyama has been a regular visitor to TPC San Antonio, where he finished T15 last year. And his past three starts have been a win at the Genesis, T12 at Bay Hill and a T6 at The Players.
–Eric Cole to Make Cut (-175 at BetMGM): The reigning Rookie of the Year doesn’t fail to make the weekend often, having missed just three cuts in his past 26 starts. Of some concern is they all came in his past eight events, but Cole made the weekend here last year and should fare well against a fairly modest field.
–Collin Morikawa Under 69.5 Round 1 (-105 at DraftKings): Morikawa hasn’t started strong of late, posting two 70s and a 71 in his past three opening rounds. There were 47 opening rounds in the 60s at TPC San Antonio last year.
2024 Prop Picks Record: 19-19-1
BEST BETS
–Roy McIlroy (+1000 at BetMGM) has not recorded a top-10 through his first five starts on tour in 2024, his longest such stretch to begin a season since his first year as a member in 2010. He finished runner-up at TPC San Antonio in 2013, but missed the cut two years ago. McIlroy leads the field with 6.9 percent of the total bets backing him since opening at +900, and the Northern Irishman is the book’s third-biggest liability this week.
–Ludvig Aberg (+1200) is well rested after a solo eighth at the Players and a career-high No. 9 world ranking. The young Swede is the book’s second-biggest liability, drawing the most money at 17.2 percent since opening at +1400. He also leads the field with 12 percent of the money backing him at the same odds at DraftKings.
–Hideki Matsuyama (+1800) won at the Genesis in February and finished T15 in San Antonio last year. He’s second in the field at DraftKings, where Matsuyama has drawn 7 percent of the money at +2200.
–Jordan Spieth (+2000) won the event in 2021 but has missed his past two cuts entering this week. He’s the book’s biggest liability this week as the Texas native has been backed by 6.4 percent of the money and 10.7 percent of the total bets — both second most in the field.
–Conners (+2200) is a two-time event winner (2019, 2023) and is seeking to become the first player since World War II to win his first three tour events at the same tournament. His +2500 odds at DraftKings has drawn 4 percent of both the total bets and money.
NOTES
–The winner this week will be the final Masters qualifier if not already eligible (80.8 percent of the field). It has happened twice in the past four Valero Texas Opens.
–The is the final event that counts toward the Aon Swing 5 for the next signature event at the RBC Heritage. Brice Garnett (not in the field) and Erik Barnes currently top the list, and fewer than 10 FedEx Cup points separate Nos. 5-7.
–Charley Hoffman will make his 500th career start on the PGA Tour. He has seven top-10s at the event and leads all players with $4.649 million in career earnings at the tournament.
–Four of the past six event winners also earned their first tour titles.
–Tommy Armour III holds the tournament scoring record of 254 set in 2003.
–Field Level Media
