The Oklahoma City Thunder are heavy favorites as they play host to Game 1 of the Western Conference finals on Tuesday, but they will be facing a well-rested Minnesota Timberwolves team.
While the Thunder are fresh off a Game 7 victory against Denver on Sunday, the Timberwolves haven’t played since eliminating Golden State six days ago.
ODDS & TRENDS
The Thunder are consensus 7.5-point favorites. That includes at BetRivers, where the Timberwolves have been a popular underdog with 67 percent of the tickets and 69 percent of the money backing them to cover.
The Over on the 216.5-point total bets line has drawn 92 percent of the money. That’s despite each of Minnesota’s past four playoff games where they entered as the underdog going under the total points line.
PROP PICKS
–Alex Caruso 2+ 3-Point FGs Made (+110 at BetRivers): Caruso has drained at least two three-pointers in four of the Thunder’s past five games. He offers an even more tantalizing payout at +280 to hit three or more on Tuesday night.
–Julius Randle Over 19.5 Points (-125 at DraftKings): Randle is coming off a 29-point effort in Minnesota’s Game 5 victory over Golden State, and averaged 25.2 points for the series. That’s after averaging 22.6 points against the Lakers in the previous series, and Randle has scored 20-plus points in eight of 10 playoff games.
PLAYOFF HISTORY
The Timberwolves are in the conference finals for the second consecutive season and the third time in their history. Minnesota has never advanced to the NBA Finals.
Oklahoma City is in the Western Conference finals for the first time since 2016 and looking for its first NBA Finals appearance since 2012.
FEELING DEFENSIVE
The series features two of the NBA’s top defenses, both during the regular season and in the playoffs.
The Thunder boast a 101.6 defensive rating — points allowed per 100 possessions — in 11 playoff games, best this postseason. Minnesota’s 106.8 defensive rating is second.
NEW ERA OF STARS
The matchup also features two of the league’s top young stars in Oklahoma City’s Shai Gilgeous-Alexander and the Timberwolves’ Anthony Edwards.
Gilgeous-Alexander is averaging 29.0 points, 6.4 assists and 5.9 rebounds this postseason while Edwards is averaging 26.5 points, 8.0 rebounds and 5.9 assists.
Gilgeous-Alexander, the front-runner for Most Valuable Player honors, is looking forward to the matchup against cousin Nickeil Alexander-Walker of Minnesota.
The two players were born less than two months apart in Toronto and both attended Hamilton Heights Christian Academy in Chattanooga, Tenn.
“It’ll be very fun,” Gilgeous-Alexander said. “It’s hard to even explain. If you know how close we are, he’s literally like my second brother. He’s been through every stage of life with me — picking up a basketball to going to prep school to making the NBA, we’ve gone through every situation together. For both of us to be where we are is special, to compete against each other even more special.
“But I am trying to take his head off for sure.”
In a 2023 play-in game, Alexander-Walker helped hold his cousin to a 5-of-19 shooting night.
Alexander-Walker said Gilgeous-Alexander’s consistency has lifted him to a different echelon.
“That comes from diligence, hard work, seeing it firsthand and discipline that truthfully I haven’t seen in anybody else,” Alexander-Walker said. “I have not seen discipline like his. So I think that’s the main reason why people think he’s made a jump when really he’s just been able to be consistently that, because he’s been so disciplined in his approach.”
SEASON SERIES
The teams split their four-game season series and split their two games in Oklahoma City.
Minnesota’s Rudy Gobert played in just one of those games — a New Year’s Eve loss — while Chet Holmgren appeared in two of the games for the Thunder.
“Apples to apples, I don’t know if those games are the perfect framework through which to look at the series,” Thunder coach Mark Daigneault said. “It’ll be different.”
PREDICTION
The Timberwolves have covered the spread in 16 of their past 17 games as an underdog when playing with a rest advantage, according to BetRivers. So, while Minnesota will be hard-pressed to pull a massive road upset in Game 1, don’t be surprised to see them cover. –Thunder 116, Timberwolves 110
–Field Level Media
