Alex “Poatan” Pereira will put his light heavyweight title on the line against Magomed Ankalaev in the main event of UFC 313 at T-Mobile Arena in Las Vegas on Saturday night.
Pereira (12-2 MMA, 9-1 UFC) has been dominant in winning his first five fights in the division, including three title defenses, but the rising challenger Ankalaev has closed the gap among oddsmakers throughout the week.
Pereira, 37, has already held titles in two weight classes through his first 10 fights overall, including a win over Israel Adesanya at UFC 281 to claim the middleweight title. Adesanya won the rematch five months later, with Pereira then moving up to light heavyweight.
He steps back into the Octagon for the first time since dispatching of Khalil Rountree Jr. in the fourth round his last time out, and will now defend his title for the fourth time.
Ankalaev (20-1-1, 11-1-1) promises to provide a very stiff test as he enters on a 13-fight unbeaten streak. The 32-year-old from Dagestan opened as the +105 underdog at BetMGM, but those odds had shifted to -105 by Friday.
Ankalaev rose to the top challenger spot after defeating Johnny Walker and Aleksandar Rakic in his past two fights.
“He’s saying that he wants to strike with me, that he’s not going to try to take me down,” Pereira told UFC.com this week. “But honestly, that’s what all of my opponents have said.
“They all say that they want to strike with me. A couple of them tried to take me down, and I got right back up.
“But partly, I believe that’s a little bit of an excuse, because it’s easy to say, ‘Oh, I did it. I went in there and I did exactly what I was going to do’, but it’s a lot harder to find me in there.”
Pereira has seen his odds shift from -125 to 115 despite being backed by 73 percent of the total bets and 71 percent of the money wagered on the fight. The most popular UFC 313 prop at BetMGM has been Pereira to win by knockout, technical knockout or disqualification.
OTHER MAIN CARD MATCHES
JUSTIN GAETHJE vs. RAFAEL FIZIEV
Fiziev (12-3, 6-3) stepped in when Dan Hooker withdrew due to a fractured left hand, creating a rematch of a fight Gaethje (25-5, 8-5) won by majority decision at UFC 286. It will also mark Gaethje’s first return to the Octagon since the 36-year-old was knocked out by Max Holloway in the fifth round at UFC 300 in Las Vegas.
However, it’s Fiziev who is the -160 favorite and has been backed by 61 percent of the total bets. That’s despite returning to the Octagon for the first time since the 31-year-old suffered a knee injury during a fight against Mateusz Gamrot in September 2023.
Meanwhile, Gaethje has drawn 75 percent of the money as the +135 underdog.
OTHER MAIN CARD FIGHTS
JALIN TURNER (18-4, 7-5) vs. IGNACIO BAHAMONDES (16-5, 5-2)
Another lightweight fight, this one pits 13th-ranked Turner against Dana White Contender Series alum Bahamondes. Turner has lost three of his past four fights, most recently against Renato Moicano. He also lost to Hooker and Mateusz Gamrot while stopping King Green during that stretch.
Bahamondes is on a run of consecutive first-round stoppage wins, including beating Manuel Torres in his last time out. He’s the -135 favorite after opening at +105, while Turner has been backed by 59 percent of the bets and 52 percent of the money in shifting from the -125 favorite to the +110 dog.
AMANDA LEMOS (14-4-1, 8-4) vs. IASMIN LUCINDO (17-5, 4-1)
A straw-weight fight between two Brazilian contenders sees the 37-year-old Lemos trying to stay within the top-5. Lucindo is 14 years her junior, and worked her way into the top-10 with a split decision win over Marina Rodriguez last year. She has reeled off four consecutive wins since dropping her promotion debut.
This is another fight that has seen the favorite flip. Lemos opened at -125, but had shifted to +115 by Friday. That’s because Lucindo has moved from +105 to -140 while drawing 62 percent of the bets and 76 percent of the money.
KING GREEN (32-16-1, 13-11-1) vs. MAURICIO RUFFY (11-1, 2-0)
The main card begins with a lightweight fight between the highly seasoned Green and the rising Ruffy. Green followed up a win over Jim Miller at UFC 300 with a quick submission loss to Padd Pimblett in July. Meanwhile, Ruffy won twice in 2024, including a close defeat of James Llontop in November.
Ruffy is by far the heaviest favorite on the main card at -475. That has led to Green (+350) being backed by 76 percent of the bets and 61 percent of the money.
–Field Level Media
