UBS lowered its price target on Vail Resorts (NYSE:MTN) to $169 from $185, while maintaining a Neutral rating, citing ongoing weakness in pass sales growth and mounting cost pressures.
The firm noted that pass unit growth is likely to remain negative for the 2025–2026 ski season, with the company’s recent +7% Epic pass price hike translating to only a 2–3% net pricing increase due to mix effects. UBS estimates same-store visitation is down 2–3% this year despite favorable snow conditions, supporting a thesis of slowing EBITDA growth, particularly outside of the Crans-Montana acquisition.
Looking into 2026, UBS expects flattish visitation and low-single-digit price increases, paired with 3% underlying cost growth, partially offset by the absence of $24M in one-time and transition-related expenses. As a result, 2026 EBITDA is now projected to be flat, down from a prior +5% growth estimate, with potential downside if Vail increases marketing to attract “less committed skiers.”
UBS also flagged structural labor cost pressures and rising customer acquisition costs as medium-term risks to margins. Vail has acknowledged suboptimal marketing efforts as a factor behind softer results, suggesting future spend may rise to regain momentum.