President Donald Trump’s decision to impose a 25% tariff on imported aluminum and steel, effective March 4, is expected to boost U.S. metal prices, with aluminum likely to see a more sustained impact than steel, according to Wolfe Research.
Key Details of the Tariff Plan

The 25% tariffs will apply to semi-finished and finished metal products.
Scrap metal and alumina are not included in the tariffs.
While Trump has stated no exemptions, reports suggest that Australia may receive an exclusion.

Aluminum Market Impact
Why Aluminum Prices Could Surge

The U.S. aluminum market is structurally short, with 47% of demand met by imports.
Two domestic smelters have recently shut down, tightening local supply.
Wolfe Research suggests that Century Aluminum (NASDAQ: CENX) and Alcoa (NYSE: AA) are best positioned to benefit.

Projected Price Increase

If the Midwest Premium (MWP) aligns with the 25% tariff, it could rise to $0.45/lb from the 2024 average of $0.19/lb.
Alcoa (AA) and Century Aluminum (CENX) have estimated:

$146 million and $41 million in benefits, respectively, for every $100/ton (~$0.05/lb) increase in MWP.
This impact could double CENX’s 2024 EBITDA and account for 50% of AA’s.

Steel Market Impact
Expected Short-Term Price Gains

Hot rolled coil (HRC) steel prices could jump to $900/ton from the current $775/ton.
However, Wolfe Research predicts prices will retreat in H2 2025 as domestic supply increases.

Beneficiaries in the Steel Industry

U.S. Steel, Steel Dynamics (NASDAQ: STLD), and Cleveland-Cliffs (NYSE: CLF) are expected to gain.
Rebar producers like Commercial Metals (CMC) and Nucor (NYSE: NUE) could also benefit due to added trade protections.

Investment Insights & Market Tracking
For real-time monitoring of commodity and metal price movements, investors can utilize:

Commodities API – Track aluminum, steel, and industrial metal prices in response to tariffs.
Key Metrics API – Analyze financial impacts on companies like Alcoa, Century Aluminum, and U.S. Steel.

Conclusion
While Trump’s tariffs could create short-term price surges in aluminum and steel, the long-term impact depends on supply dynamics and policy changes. With U.S. producers poised to benefit, investors should watch for market reactions, earnings reports, and tariff adjustments in the coming months.