The recent sell-off in U.S. equities may be far from over, with the S&P 500 potentially sliding to as low as 4,300, according to BCA Research analysts. The forecast comes amid ongoing market turmoil triggered by sweeping tariffs introduced by U.S. President Donald Trump.
“The bottom is still a long way away unless there’s a significant reversal in trade policy,” warned Irene Tunkel, lead strategist at BCA Research.
The S&P 500 closed at 5,062.25 on Monday, inching closer to a bear market, commonly defined as a 20% drop from recent highs. BCA analysts say the first wave of the sell-off—driven largely by trade and policy uncertainty—has already taken place. What follows next, they argue, could be even more disruptive.
Tariffs Fuel Next Phase of Decline
Trump’s new tariff structure—10% on all imports with some categories seeing duties as high as 50%—has shaken investor confidence. Market participants are now pricing in the broader economic impact, especially on corporate earnings and GDP.
“The next leg down in equities will come from the actual earnings deterioration and economic drag caused by tariffs,” Tunkel said.
Jamie Dimon: Tariff Damage May Be “Hard to Reverse”
Top Wall Street figures are echoing caution. JPMorgan Chase (NYSE:JPM) CEO Jamie Dimon warned earlier this week that while a recession isn’t guaranteed, sustained inflation, higher rates, and cumulative tariff impacts could seriously strain the economy.
Dimon emphasized that these risks are further complicated by ballooning U.S. fiscal deficits and ongoing geopolitical tension.
Analysts Eye S&P 500 at 4,300
If the tariffs remain in place, BCA sees a realistic chance of the S&P 500 dipping to 4,300. That would represent an over 15% decline from recent levels, bringing valuations closer in line with long-term historical averages adjusted for elevated macroeconomic risks.