The S&P 500 (SPX) remains heavily reliant on technology stocks to propel growth during the Q4 2024 earnings season, according to a recent note from Barclays (LON:BARC) strategists. Here’s an overview of their insights and the broader market implications:

Key Highlights:

January’s Performance as a Predictor:

Historically, the S&P 500’s January performance offers a strong indication of the year’s trajectory:

A decline in January typically correlates with a +2.5% median return over the following 11 months.
A gain exceeding 1.5% in January often precedes a +11.4% median return for the rest of the year.

Tech Stocks Driving Growth:

The S&P 500’s growth this season is primarily driven by the technology sector.
Downward revisions for non-technology sectors (ex-Tech) are significantly higher—300 basis points above the average—reflecting bearish sentiment.

Earnings Expectations:

Most non-tech sectors are forecasted to deliver Q4 earnings-per-share (EPS) growth below their long-term medians.
Analysts expect year-over-year EPS growth for non-tech S&P 500 companies to rebound significantly in Q1 2025, despite falling short of expectations in Q4 2024 due to negative operating leverage and subsequent EPS revisions.

Consensus EPS Forecast:

For fiscal 2025, the consensus EPS forecast has decreased to $274, compared to Barclays’ own estimate of $271. Negative revisions remain concentrated in the first half of 2025.

Implications for Investors:

Technology stocks remain pivotal to sustaining the S&P 500’s growth, highlighting the importance of monitoring sector-specific performance during earnings season.
Investors should prepare for potential volatility in sectors outside technology as they grapple with below-average growth 

expectations and the impact of negative revisions.

For more detailed market data and EPS insights, refer to the Full Financial as Reported API and the Ratios (TTM) API . These resources provide detailed financial statements and ratio analyses to guide investment decisions.