March Selloff Sets the Stage for a Potential April Rally
The S&P 500 (SPX) is on track to close March with a 6% decline, marking its worst month since September 2022 and the most challenging March since 2020. However, historical data suggests that April could bring relief.
? Key Takeaways from BTIG Analyst Jonathan Krinsky:? Since World War II, there have been seven instances where March saw a decline greater than 3%.? In each of those seven cases, the S&P 500 rebounded in April, averaging a 5.92% gain.? From April to December, the market ended higher in six out of seven instances, with 2001 as the only exception (-1.05%).
? Will History Repeat?While Krinsky remains cautious on the market’s medium-term outlook, he acknowledges that April’s setup leans bullish based on past patterns.
Market Indicators & Technical Signals
? S&P 500 Retest & Volatility Index (VIX) Divergence
The S&P 500 retested its mid-March intraday low (5504) before bouncing back.
The VIX (Volatility Index) did not reach a new high when the S&P 500 dipped—a similar pattern was seen in January before a rally.
? What This Means for Investors:? A historical pattern of rebounds in April could provide buying opportunities.? The VIX divergence suggests a potential short-term bottom for equities.? Expect volatility, but odds favor some relief for the market in the coming weeks.
Tracking Market Trends – Real-Time Data
To monitor market performance and technical indicators, check out these APIs:
Sector Historical APITrack sector performance to identify potential rebound opportunities.
Technical Intraday (Williams) APIAnalyze short-term technical trends, including momentum and overbought/oversold conditions.
Final Thoughts
While April historically favors gains after a rough March, economic uncertainties remain, including:? Trump’s upcoming tariffs and their impact on global trade.? March’s jobs report, which will provide insights into economic strength and Fed policy direction.? Inflation risks and whether the Federal Reserve will adjust its interest rate stance.
? Investor Takeaway:Will the S&P 500 repeat its historical April rally, or will macroeconomic risks keep pressure on the market?
