Evercore ISI expects the S&P 500 to reach 6,800 by the end of 2025, though it anticipates a volatile path due to escalating trade tensions and market fluctuations.

1. Trade War II: Key Market Driver
Evercore ISI notes that U.S.-China trade tensions tend to escalate after market rallies, mirroring patterns from the 2018 trade war.
Current Market Signals:

S&P 500 trailing P/E: 24.9x, indicating elevated valuations.
VIX (Volatility Index): 16.6, signaling a mix of complacency and risk.

With Trump initiating a new round of tariffs, the bank predicts that any market strength will likely lead to further trade measures.
? Company Rating API → Analyze how individual stocks are positioned amid trade war uncertainty.

2. Defensive & AI-Centric Strategies
To navigate market volatility, Evercore ISI recommends:

Defensive Stocks (“Trade War Heroes”)

Companies with low volatility and high buyback activity.
Focus on stability amid uncertainty.

AI-Centric Stocks (“AI Enablers, Adopters, Adapters”)

Companies at the core of the AI-driven S&P 500 rally.
Seen as long-term winners, despite short-term turbulence.

? Key Metrics (TTM) API → Evaluate financial stability of AI and defensive stocks.

3. Market Resilience & Tariff Impact
Despite recent trade concerns, the S&P 500 was just 1.4% below its all-time high before Trump’s tariff announcement.
Investor Takeaways:

Short-term volatility is expected, but long-term upside remains.
Trade war developments will be key market drivers.
Positioning in defensive and AI-focused stocks could provide stability and growth opportunities.

? Full Financials API → Assess balance sheets of top companies in AI and defensive sectors.
As tariff risks evolve, investors should watch for opportunities during pullbacks, while maintaining strategic exposure to AI and defensive plays.