Shopify Inc. (NYSE:SHOP) shares closed more than 3% higher today on impressive Black Friday sales. Black Friday GMV (gross merchandise value) of $3.36 billion (up 17%) came in ahead of the Street growth expectations for Q4 GMV at 8.5%.
While this data point suggests some upside to Q4 GMV, analysts at Deutsche Bank believe investors should not overreact given (1) this is only one day from the overall weekend and BF (Black Friday) typically represents mid-40 percent of BFCM (Black Friday Cyber Monday), (2) BF typically represents 5 to 6% of a given Q4; (3) prior BFCM growth rates have not been the best indicator of Q4 performance; and most importantly (4) the analysts believe this year could be facing an easier compare as last year saw holiday deals start earlier in November with many retailers/e-commerce vendors calling out an elongated selling.