Oppenheimer suggests that Shopify (NYSE:SHOP) has the potential to surpass consensus estimates for fiscal 2023 and 2024. If Shopify’s existing cohort growth patterns match pre-COVID averages (the current Baseline) and new cohorts added in the next two years continue to moderate from around $309 million in 2022, it should be able to meet or slightly exceed consensus expectations for 2023.
Oppenheimer’s analysis incorporating historical customer cohorts projects a total revenue growth of 27%/25% in 2023/2024, exceeding Street estimates of 19%/21%. The analysts highlighted better macro and product adoption as a significant driver of this upside.
The analysts reiterated its Outperform rating and $65 price target on the stock.