Seaport’s Bearish Case: Valuation, Deployment Hurdles, and Customer Risks
Seaport Research Partners stunned the Street Wednesday by assigning Nvidia (NASDAQ:NVDA) a Sell rating with a $100 price target, arguing that AI-driven upside is already baked into the stock.

“Nvidia is one of the leading beneficiaries of the current AI spending boom, but its prospects are well understood and largely priced into the stock,” Seaport wrote in its note.

Key concerns highlighted by Seaport include:

Fully Reflected AI Gains: With next-gen Blackwell chips sold out for 2025, Seaport warns there’s limited upside remaining.

Deployment Complexity: Significant cooling, configuration, and orchestration challenges could slow customer rollouts and inflate costs.

Return on Investment Uncertainty: Enterprise clients still “search for use cases and ways to generate returns” on existing AI outlays.

Hyperscaler Alternatives: Major cloud providers are designing in-house AI accelerators, posing a threat to Nvidia’s core customer base.

Modeling the Downside: DCF Assumptions
Seaport’s $100 target stems from a discounted cash flow analysis using a 7.5% long-term growth rate and an 11.5% discount rate, projecting muted free-cash-flow expansion once AI budgets cool in 2026.
Analyst Consensus vs. Seaport’s Bear View
While Seaport stands alone with its Sell call, the broader analyst community remains constructive. According to Financial Modeling Prep’s Price Target Summary API, the consensus 12-month price target for NVDA sits approximately 30% above current levels—underscoring the divergence between Seaport’s cautious stance and the Street’s average outlook.