Third-place Nottingham Forest will host fourth-place Manchester City on Saturday in a match that could prove crucial in the scrap for a top-four finish and automatic qualification for next year’s UEFA Champions League.

With 11 matches to go for most clubs, not only are Forest (14-7-6, 48 points) and Man City (14-8-5, 47 points) separated by a point, but only six points separate third place from 10th place entering the weekend.

Only the top four teams will qualify automatically for the UCL next season, though the Premier League could be awarded an extra berth based on how its teams perform in the remainder of this year’s UEFA competitions.

Forest are one of the clubs that few would’ve expected to be among that scrap at the beginning of the season after spending the previous campaign toward the bottom of the table. But with less than a third of the schedule left, Man City manager Pep Guardiola said there’s nothing fluky about the team’s current standing.

“When you are third in the table after eight, 10 fixtures, OK,” he said. “But when you are there with 11 games left, and still you are third, it’s because you have done really, really well. You cannot be there unless you have done good things. Impressive, I would say.”

The Trees are more or less healthy, and Chris Wood’s 18 goals are a career best at the Premier League level.

But Forest have gone three league games without a win, losing narrowly to Fulham and Newcastle United before holding second-place Arsenal to a scoreless draw at home on Feb. 26. Forest also drew Ipswich Town 1-1 on Monday in a fifth-round FA Cup clash before advancing on penalties.

“Nothing changes,” Forest manager Nuno Espirito Santo said. “We have to realize that we are playing a very good team who have a coach that has a big impact on the game. But it’s the same approach.”

After a swoon toward the end of last year, Man City have been much improved since Boxing Day but have still fallen short against elite opposition. Since mid-January, that includes league losses to leaders Liverpool and Arsenal, plus UCL defeats against Paris St. Germain and in both legs of last month’s knockout phase series against Real Madrid.

But one positive of those struggles is that Man City have had a full week to prepare for Saturday’s clash, their longest layoff since early January.

Man City star Erling Haaland is second in the Golden Boot race with 20 goals, while Wood ranks fourth.

–Field Level Media