Guggenheim analysts adjusted Pfizer’s (NYSE:PFE) outlook, lowering the company’s price target from $35 to $33 while maintaining a Buy rating. The revision comes ahead of Pfizer’s initial fiscal 2025 projections release, set for December 17.
The updates stemmed from a detailed review of prescription data for Pfizer’s key products during the first two months of the fourth quarter of 2024. Notably, the sales forecasts for Comirnaty, Paxlovid, and Abrysvo were scaled back, accompanied by reduced operating expense assumptions, particularly for the later years in the model.
Additional adjustments included breaking out quarterly projections for 2025 and factoring in the removal of Haleon equity income from Pfizer’s adjusted earnings in 2025. These changes brought Pfizer’s fiscal 2024 earnings per share estimate down to $2.99 from $3.03, while the fiscal 2025 EPS forecast was revised to $2.88 from $3.22. The 2025 forecast accounted for a significant headwind of approximately 30 cents per share due to non-recurring benefits that boosted 2024 results.
Despite the lowered targets, there is potential for Pfizer to outperform cautious investor expectations. Current buyside sentiment anticipates fiscal 2025 EPS guidance to fall below the $2.90 consensus estimate, likely in the $2.55 to $2.70 range. This conservative outlook positions the company to exceed projections over the course of the year, although not to the same degree as in 2024.