Crude prices tumbled over $2 a barrel in Monday’s Asian session as OPEC+ moved to ramp up production—and traders weighed an uncertain demand picture.

What Drove the Drop?

OPEC+ Supply Surge: The group agreed to add 411,000 bpd in June, marking the second straight monthly increase and lifting three-month hikes to 960,000 bpd—a 44% rollback of cuts since 2022.

Shift to Contango: The six-month Brent spread flipped into an 11¢ contango, signaling that the market expects ample near-term supply.

Demand Uncertainty: Tariff risks and mixed economic signals have left consumption forecasts shaky, even as banks like Barclays trim their 2025 Brent outlook by $4 to $66/barrel.

Market Implications

Surplus Risk: With OPEC+ on track to fully unwind voluntary cuts by October unless compliance improves, the risk of a global supply glut grows.

Price Forecast Revisions: ING now projects an average of $65/barrel for Brent in 2025, down from $70, citing deeper surplus conditions.

U.S. Output Dynamics: Barclays adds 290,000 bpd to its 2025 U.S. supply forecast—even as slower shale growth provides some offset.

How to Stay Informed
Traders can tap into FMP’s real-time data to track evolving trends:

For live commodity price movements and inventory shifts, the Commodities API offers up-to-the-minute updates.

Upcoming macro releases—like U.S. weekly oil inventories and OPEC production reports—are listed on the Economics Calendar API, helping you anticipate volatility windows.

Bottom Line
Monday’s selloff underscores how rapidly policy decisions can overwhelm demand signals. As OPEC+ presses ahead with output hikes, the balance has tilted toward excess supply—forcing traders to recalibrate price targets and positioning. Keeping a close eye on FMP’s commodity feeds and economic event schedule can provide critical context for navigating this volatile environment.