Oil prices modestly rebounded on Thursday after a 2% drop, as investors balanced talk of higher OPEC+ output with mixed trade signals from Washington and ongoing U.S.–Iran nuclear discussions.
Price Moves
Brent (June) Futures: +$0.08 (0.12%) to $66.20/bbl
WTI Futures: +$0.09 (0.14%) to $62.36/bbl
Wednesday’s Close: Both contracts down nearly 2%
OPEC+ Output Disagreement
June Increase on the Table: Reuters sources say several members want a second consecutive monthly boost.
Kazakhstan’s Stance: Will prioritize “national interest” over OPEC+ quotas—reviving fears of a price war.
Compliance Risk: With compliance already patchy, further discord could flood markets with excess supply.
Trade-War Tariff Signals
Trump’s Tariff Tone: White House may cut China duties to 50–60% to lure Beijing back to the table—but no firm offer.
Investor Reaction: Mixed; hopes of de-escalation supported risk assets, but details remain vague, limiting oil’s upside.
U.S.–Iran Nuclear Talks
Diplomatic Developments: Expert-level discussions in Oman aim for a nuclear framework, but sanctions on Iran’s LPG network keep energy tensions high.
Supply Impact: Any progress could ease Middle East risk premia, while setbacks will reinforce safe-haven demand for oil.
What’s Next for Oil Traders
OPEC+ Meeting (Early June)
Watch for formal output decisions and member compliance statements.
U.S. EIA Inventory Report (Tomorrow)
Weekly crude stocks data will confirm whether supplies are tightening.
Flash PMIs & Trade Announcements
U.S. and China releases for demand cues; tariff updates for policy risk.
Track Key Policy and Supply Events
Stay on top of upcoming OPEC+ meetings, U.S.–Iran nuclear talks, and major economic releases with the? Economics Calendar – Economics Data APIfrom Financial Modeling Prep.This API provides real-time schedules and context for the policy and supply-related events driving oil volatility.
