Stocks Slip on Potential Policy Shift
Shares of Nvidia (NASDAQ:NVDA) edged down in early trading after Reuters reported that Trump administration officials are reviewing a Biden-era rule on AI chip exports. Under the current regulation, set to take effect on May 15, advanced semiconductors like Nvidia’s H100 are subject to a three-tier licensing framework—favoring the U.S. and close allies while restricting China and Russia.
Proposed Move to Global Licensing
The administration is now considering scrapping the tiered approach in favor of a government-to-government licensing regime, aligning export controls with bilateral trade negotiations. This could give the White House fresh leverage in talks by offering chip access in exchange for concessions on unrelated trade issues.
At the same time, officials may lower the existing cut-off for license-exempt orders from 1,700 H100 units to 500, tightening rules around high-volume purchases.

“Replacing broad caps with bespoke government agreements would mark a dramatic shift in U.S. export policy,” said one industry lawyer.

Impact on Valuations and Industry Dynamics
Such uncertainty hits at the heart of the $600 billion semiconductor sector, which currently trades at roughly 18× forward earnings—a premium to the broader tech market. According to FMP’s Industry P/E Ratio API, semiconductors remain one of the most richly valued industries, underscoring how policy tweaks can ripple through chipmaker stock prices.
Navigating the Regulatory Rollercoaster
For investors, the key will be parsing official announcements versus mere debate. Tracking near-term order flows and licensing updates—alongside historical volatility measures—can help gauge whether this policy review is a temporary head-fake or a lasting regime change.