Denver is the first AFC team to clinch a playoff spot and the Broncos have their sights set on the No. 1 seed and home-field advantage.

The Broncos (12-2) would need almost everything to break their way in Week 16 to secure the West division title and a first-round bye in the AFC: beat Jacksonville (10-4), a loss by the Patriots and a loss or tie by the Chargers and Bills. They’ll be AFC West champs for the first time since 2015 with a win or tie against the Jaguars and a loss or tie by the Chargers (10-4).

Should the Jaguars win in Denver, not only does Jacksonville clinch a playoff spot, but everything in the conference becomes a shade more interesting. It keeps the Chargers alive in the division race and kicks the door open to multiple teams for the AFC’s No. 1 seed.

The Chargers clinch a playoff spot with a victory at Dallas, which would also put the Eagles in the playoffs as NFC East champs.

Angling for the NFC West crown and a leg up in the conference race for home field, the Rams (11-3) clinched a playoff spot last week. But if Los Angeles loses at Seattle (11-3) on Thursday night, the Rams can still end up on the road for the wild-card playoffs. San Francisco (10-4), very much alive in the division race, closes Week 16 at Indianapolis (8-6) with a clear picture of what’s at stake in the grand landscape of the postseason. A Lions’ loss on Sunday punches the 49ers’ ticket to the playoffs. If Detroit wins, the 49ers can still clinch by beating the Colts on “Monday Night Football.”

Philadelphia can clinch the division with a win at any point in the final three weeks, starting Sunday against the Washington Commanders (4-10). The Eagles play the Commanders again on Jan. 4.

The Bears (10-4) and Packers (9-4-1) have their own clinching scenarios predicated on the Lions losing on Sunday. But first the NFC North rivals play in primetime Saturday night in Chicago, where the winner would be sitting pretty. A Packers win gives Green Bay a season sweep of the Bears while dealing Chicago a fifth loss. Beating the Packers pushes the Bears a game and a half up in the win column in the division with two to play.

It’s shakeout week in the NFC South, too. The Panthers (7-7) draw the Buccaneers (7-7) in Charlotte with the division lead on the line.

Here’s the full playoff picture entering Week 16 and the clinching scenarios in play beginning Thursday night:

AFC
–Division Leaders
1. Denver Broncos
AFC West
12-2 overall
7-2 vs. AFC
Up Next: vs. Jacksonville Jaguars (Sunday)

Clinched playoff berth last week

Broncos clinch AFC West division title and the AFC’s No. 1 seed, lone first-round bye and home-field advantage with:

DEN win + LAC loss or tie + NE loss + BUF loss or tie

Denver clinches AFC West division title with:

DEN win + LAC loss or tie OR
DEN tie + LAC loss

2. New England Patriots
AFC East
11-3 overall
6-3 vs. AFC
Up Next: at Baltimore Ravens (Sunday night)

Patriots clinch playoff berth with:

NE win or tie OR
IND loss or tie OR
HOU loss or tie

3. Jacksonville Jaguars
AFC South
10-4 overall
7-2 vs. AFC
Up Next: at Denver Broncos (Sunday)

Jaguars clinch playoff berth with:

JAX win + IND loss or tie OR
JAX win + HOU loss or tie OR
JAX tie + IND loss OR
JAX tie + IND tie + HOU loss

4. Pittsburgh Steelers
AFC North
8-6 overall
7-3 vs. AFC
Up Next: at Detroit Lions (Sunday)

–Wild-card leaders

5. Los Angeles Chargers
10-4 overall
8-2 vs. AFC
Up Next: at Dallas Cowboys (Sunday)

Chargers clinch playoff berth with:

LAC win + IND loss or tie OR
LAC win + HOU loss or tie OR
LAC tie + IND loss OR
LAC tie + IND tie + HOU loss

6. Buffalo Bills
10-4 overall
7-3 vs. AFC
Up Next: at Cleveland Browns (Sunday)

Bills clinch playoff berth with:

BUF win + IND loss or tie OR
BUF win + HOU loss or tie OR
BUF tie + IND loss OR
BUF tie + HOU loss

7. Houston Texans
9-5 overall
7-2 vs. AFC
Up Next: vs. Las Vegas Raiders (Sunday)

–In The Hunt
8. Indianapolis Colts
8-6 overall
6-4 vs. AFC
Up Next: vs. San Francisco 49ers (Monday)

9. Baltimore Ravens
7-7 overall
5-5 vs. AFC
Up Next: vs. New England Patriots (Sunday night)

NFC
–Division Leaders
1. Los Angeles Rams
NFC West
11-3 overall
6-3 vs. NFC
Up Next: at Seattle Seahawks (Thursday)

Clinched NFC playoff berth last week.

2. Chicago Bears
NFC North
10-4 overall
6-3 vs. NFC
Up Next: vs. Green Bay Packers (Saturday)

Bears clinch playoff berth with:

CHI win + DET loss or tie OR
CHI tie + DET loss

3. Philadelphia Eagles
NFC East
9-5 overall
7-3 vs. NFC
Up Next: at Washington Commanders (Saturday)

Eagles clinch NFC East division title and playoff berth with:

PHI win OR
DAL loss OR
PHI tie + DAL tie

4. Tampa Bay Buccaneers
NFC South
7-7 overall
5-5 vs. NFC
Up Next: at Carolina Panthers (Sunday)

–Wild-card leaders
5. Seattle Seahawks
11-3 overall
6-3 vs. NFC
Up Next: vs. Los Angeles Rams (Thursday)

Seahawks clinch playoff berth with:

SEA win or tie OR
DET loss or tie

6. San Francisco 49ers
10-4 overall
8-2 vs. NFC
Up Next: at Indianapolis Colts (Monday)

49ers clinch playoff berth with:

SF win OR
DET loss OR
SF tie + DET tie

7. Green Bay Packers
9-4-1 overall
7-2-1 vs. NFC
Up Next: at Chicago Bears (Saturday)

Packers clinch playoff berth with:

GB win + DET loss or tie OR
GB tie + DET loss

–In The Hunt
8. Detroit Lions
8-6 overall
5-5 vs. NFC
Up Next: vs. Pittsburgh Steelers (Sunday)

9. Carolina Panthers
7-7 overall
5-4 vs. NFC
vs. Tampa Bay Buccaneers (Sunday)

10. Dallas Cowboys
6-7-1 overall
3-6-1 vs. NFC
vs. Los Angeles Chargers (Sunday)

–Field Level Media