Week 10 in the NFL wraps up on Monday night with the Rams rolling out the red carpet for the Miami Dolphins.
Although the Dolphins are 2-6 with three consecutive losses, Miami is far more competitive than the record indicates since starting quarterback Tua Tagovailoa returned from a four-game hiatus on injured reserve with a concussion.
Miami narrowly lost twice since Tagovailoa stepped back into the start job. The Dolphins dropped a one-point decision to Arizona and were also beaten by Buffalo by a field goal margin.
As for the Rams (4-4), they’ll look to keep their playoff hopes alive by extending their winning streak to four games and keeping their noses up with the rest of the pack in the NFC West.
Given both teams’ firepower on offense when healthy, this matchup looks tailor-made to produce a high-scoring affair.
–Dolphins’ offense energized with Tagovailoa’s return
The Dolphins scored 27 points in back-to-back games with Tagovailoa returning to rescue a group putting up less than two touchdowns per game without him. His presence alone tends to have a calming effect on the offense based on his accuracy and ability to put the ball exactly where he wants it to go.
Tagovailoa completed 69.3 percent of his passes last season and is up to 72.7 percent this season.
The Dolphins are more likely to remain on schedule with Tagovailoa, who has the fifth-highest success rate among quarterbacks with a minimum of 140 plays.
When you’re picking up the necessary yardage on early downs, you’ll have more flexibility with your playcalling.
In their last two games, the Dolphins converted 65.2 percent of their third-down opportunities and 6-for-8 in touchdown conversions inside the red zone.
While the offense can sometimes resemble a slow grind, the Dolphins’ efficiency under Tagovailoa makes them a real threat to opposing defenses.
We’re eyeing the over on Tagovailoa completions — set at 21.5 at DraftKings, ESPN Bet and FanDuel — given his high-percentage horizontal route connections with wide receivers Tyreek Hill and Jaylen Waddle and the additional threat of running back De’Von Achane.
Tagovailoa was 25 of 28 (89.3 percent) at Buffalo last week and 28 of 38 in his first game back from IR.
–Pass defense a mutual concern
Los Angeles had its share of injury woes, with wide receivers Cooper Kupp and Puka Nacua combining to miss seven games. Both players are now back with the team to significantly boost the Rams offense.
The passing game is vital for the Rams because they struggle to run the ball, ranking 31st in yards per carry (3.8).
As a result, it’s no surprise that Los Angeles has the ninth-highest pass play rate at 58.68 percent.
Rams quarterback Matthew Stafford should be eager for his chance to face this Dolphins defense. According to the FTN Fantasy Defense-adjusted Value Over Average (DVOA) metric, Miami ranks 27th against the pass.
However, the Rams’ pass defense is only one spot better.
Pro Football Focus offers a similar view. It has the Dolphins 26th in pass coverage while grading the Rams as the third worst in this category.
Hence, we play the points.
This total opened at 47.5 and was bet up as high as 49.5 before we began to see a little bit of buyback. It’s now settling at 49 at most sportsbooks. As of Monday morning, 48.5 was still available at FanDuel.
In a perfect scenario — or close to perfect health for both teams — this number would probably be closer to 52.
Do not pass: take the value and run with it.
Best bet: over 48.5 points (-115 at FanDuel)
–Michael Nwaneri, Field Level Media
