With NFL games on Wednesday, Thursday and Saturday this week, Week 17’s Sunday slate only features nine games. With several games like Raiders vs. Saints where both teams are bad, putting money on the traditional betting line is challenging. But it is a great week for NFL player props.
The following are our top 10 player prop picks for Sunday’s NFL games. (Odds are from FanDuel unless otherwise indicated.)
Jets vs. Bills
–Breece Hall, O/U 49.5 Rushing Yards at -113/-113
Hall has gone over this number in six of his last seven games. With rain in the forecast for Buffalo on Sunday, there is a good chance the Jets will focus more on the run. Plus, the more they run, the longer they can keep Josh Allen on the sideline.
Hall ran for a season-high 113 yards on the Bills earlier this year. The Bills have been an average run defense this season, which makes me think Hall will easily surpass 49.5 yards.
Take the OVER.
–James Cook, O/U 77.5 Rushing + Receiving Yards at -114/-114
The Bills have leaned into the run the last couple of weeks, with Cook going for 100-plus in two straight games and three of four. With inclement conditions expected, it would be surprising if they didn’t hand off to Cook early and often this week as well.
He could go over the total just running the ball. But in case he doesn’t break off a long run like he did the last two weeks, he’ll make up the difference with a couple of screen passes.
Take the OVER.
Falcons vs. Commanders
–Bijan Robinson, O/U 83.5 Rushing Yards at -113/-113
–Robinson, O/U 18.5 Rushing Attempts at -132/+102
The best thing Atlanta can do to help Michael Penix Jr. is establish the run, which the Falcons should do anyway with a running back like Robinson. He’s gone for 86 or more yards in six of his last seven games (four in a row). He carried the ball 19-plus times in each of them; in the outlier, he only had 12 carries.
Atlanta will make sure Robinson eats against Washington’s lackluster run defense (29th in the NFL).
Take the OVER on both.
–Michael Penix Jr., O/U 207.5 Passing Yards at -114/-114
–Penix, O/U 29.5 Pass Attempts
The Falcons will try to protect their rookie this week, much like they did last week vs. the Giants. Establishing the run will be the focus of the offense, with enough passing to keep the Commanders’ defense (which happens to be one of the best pass defenses in the league) honest.
Penix had 27 pass attempts last week. Teams have been attempting 28.5 per game on the Commanders this season and 32.3 in the last three. If Cousins was still at QB, I’d expect Atlanta to be closer to 32 attempts than 28 — but not Penix.
They’ll play it safe with Penix again. Take the UNDER for both.
Dolphins vs. Browns
–Tyreek Hill, O/U 49.5 Receiving Yards at -114/-114
It hasn’t been the kind of year we’ve come to expect from Hill, but with all the injury issues Miami has dealt with, it’s not surprising. He’s averaging 55.6 yards per game this season and has exceeded 49.5 yards in three of his last six games.
But the Dolphins are still alive for the playoffs and are facing a Browns defense giving up 157.7 yards per game to wide receivers this season. Other pass-happy teams like the Broncos (Week 13) and Bengals (Week 16) saw their wide receivers combine for 200-plus.
Take the OVER.
Giants vs. Colts
–Jonathan Taylor, O/U 102.5 Rushing Yards at -115/-115 (via DraftKings)
–Taylor O/U 22.5 Rushing Attempts at -110/-110 (via DraftKings)
Taylor carried the ball 29 times for 218 yards last week vs. Tennessee, but 135 yards came on two carries. Expecting similar numbers would be unrealistic.
But as long as the Colts decide to abuse the Giants’ 31st-ranked run defense rather than (try to) establish the pass, good things will happen.
Taylor has had at least 21 attempts each time the Colts have won while he was healthy this season. As bad as the Giants’ run defense is, it makes sense to feed Taylor the ball 25 times.
Take the OVER for both.
Cowboys vs. Eagles
–Saquon Barkley, O/U 111.5 Rushing Yards at -113/-113
With Jalen Hurts out this week, the Eagles will likely focus on establishing the run with Barkley to take pressure off Kenny Pickett. It didn’t result in a win last week against the Commanders, but Washington is a better team than the Cowboys this year.
Dallas has held teams to an average of 89.3 yards over their last three games. But the Eagles are playing at home and have a chance to lock up the division with a win. With Barkley and the defense leading the way, they’ll get the job done.
Take the OVER.
–Field Level Media
