Week 11 of the NFL season got off to an exciting start with the Commanders vs. Eagles game on “Thursday Night Football.”
Bettors have the rest of Week 11 ahead of them, but they don’t have to settle for the traditional betting line if they don’t want to. No, each game comes with a healthy menu of player props.
Bettors can choose from over a thousand player props for the Sunday games. The following is a list of our top 10 player props for NFL Week 11 (in no particular order).
NFL Week 11: Player Props
Green Bay Packers vs. Chicago Bears
Jordan Love, O/U 32.5 passing attempts at -102/-128 (FanDuel)
Opponents have averaged just over 30 attempts per game against the Bears this season and just over 27 in the last three. Why so few? Because foes don’t need to throw on the Bears.
Once teams get out to a sufficient lead, they lean heavily on the run to run time off the clock. That’s what the Patriots did when they beat the Bears last week, as did the Cardinals the week before.
Love has exceeded 32.5 attempts in four of his seven starts this season, including two of his past three. But don’t count on him to do it again, as the Packers will do like everyone else when they play the Bears and lean on the run game. Take the UNDER.
Cincinnati Bengals vs. Los Angeles Chargers
Joe Burrow, O/U 265.5 passing yards at -115/-115 (DraftKings)
Burrow widely is regarded as one of the better passers in the NFL. Anyone who watched him throw for 428 yards last week vs. the Ravens will probably agree with that sentiment. However, there are a couple of things working against Burrow going OVER this total.
For one, the Chargers have a solid pass defense that is allowing just 191.6 yards per game. While Burrow is averaging 267.2 passing yards per game, take away his two ridiculous outings against the Ravens, and his average is 231.5 yards per game. Take the UNDER.
Pittsburgh Steelers vs. Baltimore Ravens
George Pickens, O/U 68.5 receiving yards at -120/-110
George Pickens, longest reception, O/U 26.5 yards at -135/+100
George Pickens, O/U 4.5 Reception made at -130/+100
George Pickens, 75+ Receiving Yards at +110
*Odds via BetMGM
The Ravens can’t defend against the pass (league-worst 294.9 yards allowed per game). It’s been well-documented and evident whenever they play a competent quarterback. Russell Wilson appears to be one once again, and he has done a great job connecting with George Pickens on deep balls.
In Wilson’s three starts, the veteran quarterback hit Pickens with a long of 44, 43 and 34 yards. No one gives up more 20-plus-yard receptions than the Ravens (47). Wide receivers are averaging nearly 200 yards a game against the Ravens. If Wilson targets Pickens eight times, he will make at least five catches and almost certainly will go OVER 68.5 yards, if not 75+ as well.
Unless the Ravens suddenly figure out how to defend against the pass, Pickens will have a career day. Take the OVER for each prop.
Lamar Jackson, O/U 43.5 rushing yards at -127/-108 (Caesars)
Jackson has gone over this number in seven of 10 games this season but not in his past two. Against the Steelers, he will face one of the best run defenses in the game (No. 4, 87.1 ypg allowed). But they are not just good at stopping running backs. Pittsburgh is quite good at containing running quarterbacks.
The Steelers’ defense is one of the best at keeping quarterbacks from scrambling. Quarterbacks are running on 1.5 percent of dropbacks, the lowest rate in the league.
If Jackson sets his mind to it, he would clear 44 yards against the Steelers D, but they don’t need him to. That’s what they signed Derrick Henry for, so someone other than their quarterback can run for the tough yards. Take the UNDER.
Jacksonville Jaguars vs. Detroit Lions
Amon-Ra St. Brown, O/U 76.5 receiving yards at -105/-115 (DraftKings)
Jared Goff, O/U 228.5 passing yards at -113/-113 (FanDuel)
Jahmyr Gibbs, O/U 15.5 rushing attempts at +100/-130 (BetMGM)
Bonus: Jahmyr Gibbs, O/U 69.5 rushing yards at -113/-113 (FanDuel)
St. Brown has gone over this total just twice this season, vs. the Buccaneers in Week 2 and the Vikings in Week 7. The Jaguars do not have a defense that can contain him, but don’t count on him to go OVER 76.5 yards. Why not? The Lions will not need him to.
Detroit is a massive favorite in this game. Once the Lions get a comfortable lead, the offense will focus more on running the ball and eating up the clock. That is also why Goff will probably not go over 228.5 yards passing, a number he has gone over once in his past three games.
Take the UNDER for both.
As for Gibbs and his rushing attempts, he has gone over 15.5 carries just twice this season as he is in a committee with David Montgomery. (They both have 122 carries heading into this game). Thus, Gibbs is getting 13.6 attempts per game, so he would need at least two more to hit the OVER.
Assuming the Lions do lean on the run in the second half once the game is in hand, he would get closer to 20 carries and closer to 90-100 yards than 69.5. Take the OVER on both.
–Field Level Media
