The divisional round of the NFL playoffs kicks off when the Kansas City Chiefs begin their quest for a three-peat at home against the Houston Texans on Saturday.
The Chiefs (15-2) will be well-rested coming off their bye week courtesy of earning the top seed in the AFC. The Texans (10-7) are coming off an impressive come-from-behind victory over the Los Angeles Chargers in the wild-card round.
ODDS & TRENDS
Kansas City is a consensus 8.0-point favorite, although the line was 8.5 at several sportsbooks on Friday. That includes at BetRivers, where the Chiefs have been backed by 86 percent of the spread-line bets and 96 percent of the money.
The 41.5 total points line has seen the Over draw 63 and 69 percent of the money, respectively.
PROP PICK
–Chiefs RB Isiah Pacheco 40+ Rushing YArds (-175 at DraftKings): This has been the most popular player prop at the book, which is also offering +115 odds on 50-plus yards and +220 odds on 60-plus yards. Pacheco returned in December and has topped 50 yards only once in the past four games as he continues to share the backfield with Kareem Hunt. We do expect to see a heavier workload for Pacheco in the postseason.
THE NEWS
Will Anderson Jr. and Mario Edwards Jr. both had 1.5 sacks against Chargers quarterback Justin Herbert, who threw four interceptions to surpass his regular-season total of three in Houston’s 32-12 win.
Derek Stingley Jr. hauled in two of the Texans’ picks, while Eric Murray returned his interception 38 yards for a score.
“We talk about having aggressive hands and going to get the ball and pulling it away, pulling it down. Those things,” Houston defensive coordinator Matt Burke said. “They all have the mindset of, ‘We’re going to attack the ball,’ you know. We try to say there’s no such thing as a 50/50 ball. … That’s our ball when it’s in the air. I think it’s a skill set for sure and it’s a mindset. I think those guys, when the ball is thrown to them, they want to go. That’s their ball.”
Houston grabbed a second-quarter lead in its Week 16 visit to Kansas City but lost 27-19, struggling to regroup after a would-be, game-tying PAT kick in the third quarter was no good.
Chiefs quarterback Patrick Mahomes passed and rushed for a touchdown on an ankle he sprained the previous week. Texans counterpart C.J. Stroud passed for two scores but was intercepted twice.
Houston linebacker Azeez Al-Shaair, who missed the game as part of a suspension following a hit that concussed Jacksonville’s Trevor Lawrence, anticipates a fun matchup against Mahomes.
“I think it’s going to be a great competition,” Al-Shaair said. “Obviously, his resume speaks for itself. Just to be out there with the best of the best, that’s what you (play) the game for. On Saturday, it’s going to be all lights on us.”
Mahomes is 6-0 in divisional games in his career. He rested in Week 18 after matching a season high with three touchdown passes in the previous game. He and his wife welcomed their third child, daughter Golden, to start the week.
“This team shows a lot of resiliency,” said defensive lineman Chris Jones, who missed the last three games with a calf strain. “This team can win in a multitude of ways, whether it’s offense, defense or special teams. We’ve broadcast that throughout the year. This team had a lot of close games, we’ve had a lot of injuries, faced a lot of adversity early on throughout the year.”
Mahomes said he’s focused on the task at hand after a 15-2 regular season in which 11 games were decided by eight points or less. He flipped his social media profile pictures to his collection of Super Bowl rings in a message he’s back in business.
KEY STAT
With 15 career postseason wins, Mahomes can tie Joe Montana (16 wins) for second place all-time in playoff wins by a quarterback behind Tom Brady (35). Mahomes is four places behind Brady for the all-time playoff touchdown record, and just five TDs would bump him up to second place on that list. Brady has 88 TD passes in 48 playoff games; Mahomes has 41 in 18 games. Aaron Rodgers (45), Montana (45) and Brett Favre (44) stand between the two.
INJURY REPORT
Texans running back Joe Mixon did not practice on Thursday after being limited on Wednesday with an ankle injury and is listed as questionable for the game. He had 25 carries for 106 yards and a 17-yard touchdown last week.
Tight end Dalton Schultz (shoulder) was a full participant on Thursday after being limited Wednesday.
Al-Shaair (knee) missed Tuesday’s practice and was limited Wednesday and Thursday. He was shaken up during Saturday’s wild-card win, though he returned after missing just one snap and is listed as questionable to play against the Chiefs. Wide receiver Robert Woods (hip) has not practiced and is questionable, as is tight end Teagan Quitoriano (calf), who is on injured reserve.
For the Chiefs, wide receiver Mecole Hardman (knee) has been limited all week and is doubtful, while cornerback Jaylen Watson (ankle) is questionable despite being a full practice participant this week.
SERIES PLAYOFF HISTORY
The Texans are aiming for the franchise’s first AFC title game after five losses in as many trips to the divisional round.
Kansas City overcame a 24-0 second-quarter deficit against the visiting Texans in a divisional game after the 2019 season, winning 51-31 en route to a Super Bowl title.
The Chiefs blanked the host Texans 30-0 in a wild-card game after the 2015 season.
THEY SAID IT
“Every year is a new challenge. Every year is a new opportunity to go and achieve the ultimate goal, and that’s to win a championship.” –Jones
PREDICTION
The Texans pulled away from Chargers in the friendly confines of their stadium in Houston last week. Taking on a well-rested Chiefs team at Arrowhead Stadium — where the temperatures are expected to top out in the mid-20s on Saturday — is an entirely different task. Kansas City’s offense isn’t as explosive as in years past, but the Chiefs simply don’t lose at home in the divisional round of the playoffs.
–Chiefs 27, Texans 20
–Field Level Media
