The New England Patriots play host to the Chicago Bears on Monday night riding a surprising two-game winning streak that has kept them in the thick of the AFC playoff race.
Surprising only because those wins were orchestrated by fourth-round rookie quarterback Bailey Zappe.
Mac Jones is expected to return from the high ankle sprain that has sidelined him since Week 3, but the Patriots (3-3) clearly believe they can win with either signal-caller.
The Bears’ offense hasn’t elicited as much confidence with Chicago (2-4) having scored only 93 points through six games and riding a three-game losing streak.
New England boasts a five-game winning streak against Chicago (2-4) and a 10-3 mark in the series overall.
Patriots coach Bill Belichick enters Monday with 324 career coaching victories (including playoffs), tied with Bears legend George Halas for second place all-time. Don Shula is next with 347.
New England opened as 7.5-point favorites but the line had moved to 9.0 points by mid-day Monday with the news that Jones is likely to start and the Patriots’ spread line backed by 63 percent of the bets and 73 percent of the money.
However, the line had shifted from 8.5 to 8.0 at DraftKings, where the Bears were being backed by just 34 and 32 percent of the action, respectively. Meanwhile, BetRivers reported even more lopsided action with the Patriots drawing 72 percent of the bets and 82 percent of the money with the line at 8.5 points.
PROP PICKS
Patriots RB Rhamondre Stevenson to Score 1st TD (+400 at BetMGM): This has been the most popular prop bet at the sportsbook, and for good reason. The Bears are allowing an average of 4.8 yards per carry and 163 rushing yards per game. Stevenson has become the Patriots’ workhorse, averaging 118.5 rushing yards with a pair of touchdowns over the past two games. The main concern here being the expected return of backfield mate Damien Harris from a hamstring injury.
Patriots DL Deatrich Wise Jr. Over 0.75 Sacks (+145 at DraftKings): Matt Judon leads New England with 6.0 sacks, but Wise is right behind him and offers better odds on the same prop than Judon at +100. Bears quarterback Justin Fields has been sacked 23 times on 115 pass attempts, or one in every five. Three of Wise’s sacks did come in one game against Baltimore but he has at least one in half of New England’s games this season.
Bears RB David Montgomery under 52.5 rushing yards (-120 at BetMGM): This has been the third-most popular prop bet at the sportsbook. Chicago is second in the league with an average of 170.8 rushing yards per game, but that production includes 5.2 yards per carry by quarterback Justin Fields and 402 yards from Khalil Herbert — 156 more than Montgomery has produced this season. New England allowed Cleveland to rush for only 70 yards in its last game.
INJURY REPORT
Both teams enter the game extremely healthy for this point of the season. Chicago did not list anyone on its final injury report of the week while New England had Jones (ankle), defensive tackle Christian Barmore (knee) and wide receivers Nelson Agholor (hamstring) and Kendrick Bourne (toe) among 10 players listed as questionable on Saturday.
PREDICTION
These teams would appear to be going in opposite directions but as we’ve seen throughout the first two months of this NFL season, nothing is as it seems. Each of the Bears’ losses during their three-game skid have been by a single possession and they’ve had an extra four days since their Thursday night loss in Week 6 to refresh and address critical areas. They may not win, but it will be close. –Patriots 23, Bears 20
–Field Level Media
