Oppenheimer analysts believe Netflix, Inc. (NASDAQ:NFLX) shares, being down 22% post-Q4 highs around higher churn from enforcing password sharing and slower ad launch, are attractive at current levels.
However, the analysts believe nothing has changed from their original thesis: advertising increases the TAM, content competition is easing, and paid account sharing will be a long-term tailwind.
While enforcement of account sharing should drive material upside to revenue long term, investors look at this as a headwind to the stock. Depending on the recapture rate, the analysts see a $2—8 billion revenue upside.
Q1 engagement is trending weaker than the previous two quarters but in line with the company’s previous 6-quarter average. Meanwhile, competitors appear more focused on profitability, suggesting we are past peak competition, as evidenced by the company’s second-highest streaming net adds in Q4, recent increased content spend efficiency and Q4 management comments around lower churn. The analysts also believe account sharing will be meaningfully accretive to EBITDA.
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