The picture is getting a little clearer for the first edition of the 12-team College Football Playoff.
Tuesday’s rankings reveal placed Alabama (9-3) at No. 11, ahead of No. 12 Miami (10-2) and No. 13 Ole Miss (9-3), and the Crimson Tide are in position to receive the final spot in the playoff field if conference championship weekend doesn’t provide any surprises.
“What it really came down to is Alabama is 3-1 against current Top 25 teams and Miami is 0-1,” selection committee chair Warde Manuel said on ESPN’s ranking reveal show. “Alabama is 6-1 against teams above .500 and Miami’s 4-2. Both have had some losses that weren’t what they wanted out of those games, but in the last three games Miami has lost twice. So for us, in evaluating their body of work, we felt that Alabama got the edge over Miami.”
Manuel said there won’t be any changes between Tuesday and Sunday for teams not playing in their conference championship games, all but confirming that Miami and Ole Miss are out of the running.
“Yes, so those who are not playing, we will not adjust those teams because they don’t have another data point obviously,” Manuel said.
He added that a team that loses its conference championship game may not take a hit at all, citing two years ago when TCU fell to Kansas State in the Big 12 title game but did not drop in the rankings.
Unbeaten Oregon remained No. 1 in the rankings, and Texas, Penn State and Notre Dame moved up to Nos. 2-4 following Ohio State’s loss to Michigan and subsequent tumble. Georgia rose two spots to No. 5, and the Buckeyes settled at No. 6.
Tennessee, SMU, Indiana and Boise State rounded out the top 10 in front of Alabama. SMU and Boise State join Oregon and Texas as the projected top-four conference champions who will receive first-round byes in the tournament.
The fifth-highest ranked conference champ is still projected to be the winner of the Big 12 title game between No. 15 Arizona State and No. 16 Iowa State.
There’s a clear scenario where a “bid thief” takes Alabama out of the running for an at-large. Clemson dropped five places to No. 17 when it lost to South Carolina last Saturday, but thanks to Miami’s come-from-ahead loss to Syracuse, Clemson qualified for the ACC championship game against SMU.
Should Clemson beat ACC newcomer SMU on Saturday in Charlotte, N.C., the Tigers would vault not only into the playoff field with an auto bid, but potentially all the way into the top four seeds if they’re ranked highly enough.
CFP projected first-round byes: No. 1 seed Oregon, No. 2 seed Texas, No. 3 seed SMU, No. 4 seed Boise State
CFP projected quarterfinal games (campus sites):
No. 9 seed Tennessee at No. 8 seed Ohio State
No. 10 seed Indiana at No. 7 seed Georgia
No. 11 seed Alabama at No. 6 seed Notre Dame
No. 12 seed Arizona State at No. 5 seed Penn State
CFP rankings (different from seeds):
1. Oregon (12-0)
2. Texas (11-1)
3. Penn State (11-1)
4. Notre Dame (11-1)
5. Georgia (10-2)
6. Ohio State (10-2)
7. Tennessee (10-2)
8. SMU (11-1)
9. Indiana (11-1)
10. Boise State (11-1)
11. Alabama (9-3)
12. Miami (10-2)
13. Ole Miss (9-3)
14. South Carolina (9-3)
15. Arizona State (10-2)
16. Iowa State (10-2)
17. Clemson (9-3)
18. BYU (10-2)
19. Missouri (9-3)
20. UNLV (10-2)
21. Illinois (9-3)
22. Syracuse (9-3)
23. Colorado (9-3)
24. Army (10-1)
25. Memphis (10-2)
–Field Level Media
