The improved strength of the Western Conference is among the prevailing themes for the 2023-24 NBA season.
Led by the defending champion Denver Nuggets, the West figures to provide an entertaining, nasty fight for playoff positions. But which teams can sports-betting fans target for their win-total wagers before the season tips off on Tuesday?
Here are three leading plays to make — two overs and one under — for win-total consideration this season, and a couple of bonus bets.
–Sacramento Kings, over 44.5
The Kings are a relatively young team with a dynamic leader, 25-year-old guard De’Aaron Fox, and reliable complementary pieces.
Sacramento fans provide one of the more game-changing home-court advantages in the NBA, and the Kings won 48 games last season. They have stars Domantas Sabonis and Harrison Barnes back and added backup big JaVale McGee and Sasha Vezenkov, the Euroleague MVP.
Second-year wing Keegan Murray, the fourth overall pick from the 2022 draft, already looks much-improved.
The 18-victory leap last season from a 30-win campaign in 2021-22 ended with Sacramento’s first playoff berth in 16 years and a first-round Game 7 home loss to Golden State.
Sabonis, who played with an injured hand, already has shown that he’s returned to full health during the preseason.
To eclipse the win total posted for the coming season, 2022-23 NBA Coach of the Year Mike Brown will have to see some improvement on defense, where the team ranked 24th (allowing 116 points per 100 possessions).
The offense should continue to click, having scored 118.6 points per 100 possessions and 120.7 points per game last season – first in the NBA.
The bet here is that the Kings’ cohesiveness will compensate for the West’s improvement, and that a repeat of 48 victories is not unreasonable.
–Phoenix Suns, under 52.5
How long will it take for the talented triumvirate of Devin Booker, Kevin Durant and Bradley Beal to coalesce and become greater than the sum of those parts?
The organization likely privately says, “How about by the time the playoffs roll around?”
That makes sense, given the lack of emphasis on playoff seeding in the modern NBA, where the plan is to have everyone playing at their best by April.
The Suns, a consensus third favorite to win the NBA championship, should be able to coast into the playoffs while spending the season tinkering with new coach Frank Vogel’s system.
A key piece is newcomer Jusuf Nurkic, who will replace Deandre Ayton’s minutes and must provide efficient offense and rim protection. That feels like too tall a task for a guy who, at 29, has a ton of miles on his legs and whose athleticism is going to be tested.
Nurkic has well-documented trouble in the NBA’s trendy defensive scheme of drop coverage – and that’s when he’s available. He hasn’t played more than 56 games since the 2018-19 season.
Additional newcomers Grayson Allen, Yuta Watanabe and Eric Gordon will need to hit close to 40% from long range, given the likelihood of wide-open looks. Their efficiency will go a long way toward determining the success of our regular-season prediction.
Chemistry and a scarcity of urgency make this feel like a team with a ceiling of 50 regular-season wins – but with a strong chance to test the Denver Nuggets for Western Conference supremacy during the postseason.
–Boston Celtics over 54.5
This is the other side of the “under” bet on the Phoenix Suns.
The Western Conference is stronger this season; the Eastern Conference is weaker and top-heavy.
In Boston, the addition of Kristaps Porzingis brings optimism for a postseason breakthrough. For these Celtics, though, the regular season is important. A 57-win team in 2022-23, Boston fell one victory short of the Milwaukee Bucks’ NBA-best record.
As the Bucks move into the Damian Lillard era — likely to include at least a two-month learning curve — the Celtics are poised for a quick start.
Boston, for better or worse, committed to coach Joe Mazzulla in the offseason — following a playoff flame-out against the Miami Heat.
Gone are Marcus Smart, Robert Williams and Grant Williams, while Jayson Tatum, Jaylen Brown, newcomer Jrue Holiday, Derrick White and Porzingis form a terrific nucleus.
“There’s a lot of excitement,” White told ESPN. “Adding Jrue and KP, and how close we’ve been every year since I’ve been here … a championship is what we’re focusing on.”
It feels like Boston can’t wait to get started, and that means focus from Day 1.
BONUS BETS
Denver Nuggets over 52.5: A full season with Jamal Murray and Nikola Jokic torturing opponents? The champs will be hunted but they’ll be tough to kill.
Philadelphia 76ers under 47.5: James Harden is tearing apart the Sixers. He’s unhappy again. Can Philly find a useful trade? For whom? Unless Harden abruptly changes his mindset, the 76ers won’t make it to 48 victories.
–Field Level Media
