It’s finally here.
The 2023-24 NBA season arrives Tuesday and we’ll find out whether Kristaps Porzingis is an asset, if Damian Lillard can guard anyone and whether Nikola Jokic clears any doubt regarding his place in the pantheon of the league’s most valuable players.
Let’s take a look at futures opportunities in the division, conference and NBA title markets, attempting to identify the best value plays for basketball-betting enthusiasts.
DIVISION TITLE
The defending champion Denver Nuggets are the heaviest division favorites (-390). With guard Jamal Murray in the fold from the season’s opening tip, it’s hard to find a counter argument.
The Nuggets have to hold off the Minnesota Timberwolves, Oklahoma City Thunder, Utah Jazz and Portland Trail Blazers. The problem with the Nuggets’ chalky number is the strength of the Western Conference.
There aren’t many breaks for Denver, which is one Jokic injury away from becoming vulnerable.
Therefore, we cast our glance eastward.
The Boston Celtics added big man, Kristaps Porzingis, along with defensive stalwart Jrue Holiday to replace Marcus Smart, Robert Williams and Grant Williams.
All-Stars Jayson Tatum and Jaylen Brown are consistent scoring forces who will enjoy pummeling the lesser lights among the Eastern Conference.
Boston’s odds, like Denver’s, are chalky (-240) but we can find a way to create a tasty wager.
Heard of Damian Lillard? He’s the All-Star guard – formerly of the Trail Blazers – who is not yet past his prime scoring years (though he has trouble guarding a stationary object).
Lillard joined the Milwaukee Bucks and the second-best player in the world, Giannis Antetokounmpo. This duo will prove a titanic challenge to defend.
The Bucks (-360) are tasked with turning back the Cleveland Cavaliers to win the Central Division, whose members also include the Chicago Bulls, Indiana Pacers and Detroit Pistons. So, yeah: the Bucks vs. the Cavs.
The Division Bet: Two-team parlay featuring the Celtics and Bucks for their respective division titles (-124). Couldn’t be easier, right (barring injury)?
CONFERENCE TITLE
Now we’re talking winners.
Who will emerge to carry their conference torch into the NBA Finals in 2024?
FanDuel has the Bucks and Celtics as co-favorites to win the Eastern Conference. Their +175 number doesn’t inspire a great deal of excitement.
You say the Western Conference is loaded? Sure it is.
And that’s why our play comes from this collection of tough guys; the payouts are better because there are more teams capable of taking the crown.
The bad news for teams such as the Golden State Warriors and Los Angeles Lakers (both at +750 to win the West) is that the world’s best basketball player is still leading the champions.
Nikola Jokic and the Nuggets, according to consensus NBA betting odds, face only one strong challenge: the Phoenix Suns, whose odds of +270 are, as of Monday, the same as those posted for the Nuggets.
There is value in backing the champs.
The Suns’ deadly “Big 3” of Kevin Durant, Devin Booker and Bradley Beal will undoubtedly need time to grow.
Equally important when determining the home-court edge in the playoffs, the Suns organization has a long view toward success. That is, they want to ensure their stars have enough rest to be at their peak in April.
Conversely, the Nuggets will roll to the West’s best record and will be waiting with a smile when it’s time to play the Western Conference finals.
The Conference bet: Denver Nuggets +270.
NBA TITLE: Anyone who saw the NBA explode in popularity during the 1980s witnessed what a truly generational talent can provide.
Either Boston’s Larry Bird or Los Angeles’ Magic Johnson – or both – led their respective teams to the NBA Finals in all 10 years during that decade.
Denver has a similar leader who makes his team a contender to become the league’s next dynasty.
Did you see Aaron Gordon before he played with Jokic? Did you catch the improvement from Michael Porter Jr. and Jamal Murray when sharing the court with Jokic?
It’s not a mirage.
Jokic sees the court at an elite level and cares deeply about winning when spring moves toward summer. During the 2023 Finals, he put up 30 points, 13.5 rebounds and 9.5 assists per game; his regular-season averages were 24.5/11.8/9.8.
Whatever it takes, he’ll do it.
The FanDuel betting favorites are the Celtics and Bucks (both +380), but the value lies out West.
A full season with Murray, improved versions of Porter and Gordon and support from Kentavious Caldwell-Pope and Christian Braun add up to another celebration in June.
NBA title bet: Denver Nuggets (+550).
–Field Level Media
