The jockeying for the final few available playoff spots has entered crunch time as the NASCAR Cup Series hits the Atlanta Motor Speedway for Sunday’s Quaker State 400.
Eleven drivers are all but assured of qualifying for the postseason based on victories in the first 18 races of the regular season.
Kevin Harvick (151 points above the playoff cut line), Chris Buescher (+104) and Brad Keselowski (+91) — currently 12th, 13th and 14th, respectively in the Playoff standings — all seem comfortably situated, barring a spate of new winners in the next eight races.
Beyond that, however, the field is tightly packed. Bubba Wallace is 15 points to the good in 15th, and Ty Gibbs is six points above the cut line in 16th, the last playoff-eligible position. Gibbs gained 16 points and moved up two spots on the Playoff grid with his ninth-place finish in the inaugural Chicago Street Race last Sunday.
Drivers in the 17th through 25th positions all are within striking distance, with 24th-place Chase Elliott 55 points out of a Playoff spot and 25th-place Ryan Preece 66 points in arrears.
Given the superspeedway competition package in use for Sunday’s race on recently repaved Atlanta Motor Speedway, the universe of potential winners — and hence, potential playoff qualifiers — is expanded, at least according to conventional wisdom.
Wallace, for example, expressed confidence in his No. 23 team, despite four straight finishes of 15th or worse following his fourth-place run in the Coca-Cola 600 at Charlotte in May.
“These last few races haven’t gone really well, and it wasn’t because we were looking at points,” Wallace said. “We just haven’t executed. We know the situation that we’re in, and we know we’re right there on the cusp of our first win of the season.
“We’ve just got to put it all together. … We’ve just got to regroup. Our team can do it. I believe one thousand percent in this group, and it’s just a matter of time. We’ll be there.”
One interesting aspect of the Quaker State 400 is a first for NASCAR — a variable pit road speed. Under green, drivers will be able to run up to 90 mph in the first two sectors of pit road, entering from Turn 3. From the third sector on, pit road speed drops to 45 mph.
Under caution, pit road speed is a constant 45 mph. In addition, one minute will be added to the Damaged Vehicle Policy clock for both the Cup and Xfinity Series. Cup teams will now have eight minutes to effect repairs. Xfinity teams will have seven minutes.
QUAKER STATE 400
The Place: Atlanta Motor Speedway
The Date: July 9, 7 p.m. ET
The Distance: 400 miles
Defending Champion: Chase Elliott
Cup Series Leader: William Byron
TV: USA
Radio: SiriusXM NASCAR Radio
FIVE BEST BETS
Chase Elliott (+1100 at BetMGM)
Elliott didn’t compete at Atlanta in March because of a broken leg sustained in a snowboarding accident. The defending winner of this event finds himself 55 points below the playoff cut line and without a win through his first 11 races. Elliott has been popular with the public this week, leading the grid with 12.8 percent of the winning driver tickets and 12.8 percent of the money, making him the book’s biggest liability since opening at +1300.
Kyle Busch (+1200)
Busch’s odds have shifted slightly since opening at +1300 as he has drawn the third-most total bets with 6.6 percent. He leads the Cup Series with 11 top-10s and is tied for the lead with a trio of victories. Busch is riding a streak of five consecutive top-10 finishes and is coming off a fifth-place run in Chicago.
Joey Logano (+1200)
Logano earned the pole in Atlanta in March, then took the opening stage and led 140 of 260 laps on his way to his lone victory to date this year. One of the series’ most aggressive drivers, Logano does have three DNFs offsetting five top-5 finishes. He has been solid of late with a pair of top-3 finishes among his past four races.
William Byron (+1400)
It’s impossible to discount Byron entering any race. He has equaled Busch’s three victories so far and leads the series with 722 total laps led — 134 more than No. 2 Kyle Larson. However, Byron is looking to get back to top form. After a runner-up at Charlotte, Byron has finished 8-14-6-13 in his past four races.
Kyle Larson (+1600)
Larson is BetMGM’s third-biggest liability this week for good reason. Sitting eighth in the standings is a bit misleading due to five DNFs. Larson has a pair of wins among his nine top-10 finishes this year, and is second at the book with 6.8 percent of the bets backing him to win this week along with the third-most money at 8.8 percent.
LONGSHOT PICK
Kevin Harvick (+3000)
Harvick is another veteran driver still seeking his first win of 2023. However, he remains in good position 151 points above the playoff cut line because he leads all winless drivers with 106 stage points. Harvick does have four top-5s and seven top-10s this season, so it appears only a matter of time before he takes another checkered flag.
–Field Level Media (NASCAR Wire Service contributed to this story)
