With only five races remaining before the start of the NASCAR Cup Series playoffs, there are only a few spots left up for grabs.
That ratchets up Sunday’s Cook Out 400 at Richmond (Va.) Raceway, where Kevin Harvick is the defending champion. Kyle Larson won the spring race at Richmond and has been strong on short tracks all year.
Bubba Wallace is 15th in the points standings, 27 above postseason cutoff, and Michael McDowell is in 16th — just 17 points up on the cutoff.
Meanwhile, A.J. Allmendinger has moved into that 17th-place slot, just below the cutoff — only 17 points behind McDowell, who is also just 23 points ahead of Daniel Suarez. Ty Gibbs is now 28 points out of earning a playoff spot in his first full NASCAR Cup Series season.
Among these five drivers, Suarez (16.1) has the best average finish at Richmond, followed by Allmendinger (22.1), Gibbs (22.5), Wallace (23.6) and McDowell (30.4).
The biggest name currently outside of the playoff picture is 2020 series champion Chase Elliott, who sits in 21st place and 56 points behind McDowell. Elliott doesn’t have a win yet in 2023 and missed six races due to injury and penalty. He has made the playoffs in each of his seven previous years in the Cup Series.
COOK OUT 400
The Place: Richmond (Va.) Raceway
The Date: July 30, 3 p.m. ET
The Distance: 400 miles on .75-mile track
Defending Champion: Kevin Harvick
Cup Series Leader: Martin Truex Jr.
TV: USA Network
Radio: SiriusXM NASCAR Radio
Martin Truex Jr. (+400 at BetMGM)
The Cup Series points leader has multiple short-track wins this year (Dover, Del. and New Hampshire). Truex, who leads the championship by 30 points over William Byron, boasts the best average short-track finishing position (6.6) this season and Byron holds the best average start (6.5) at the previous short-track stops. Truex opened at +500, but his odds have shortened while being backed by 7.0 percent of the total bets.
Denny Hamlin (+500)
Hamlin shot up to third in the standings with last week’s dramatic victory at Pocono – his fourth top-10s in his past seven races. Hamlin, who finished 20th after starting 11th at Richmond in the spring, has drawn 4.5 percent of both the total bets and money wagered at the book since opening at +700.
Kyle Larson (+600)
Larson was frustrated with his 21st-place finish last week after a door-to-door battle with Hamlin for the checkered flag. Larson has been strong on short tracks this year, winning at Richmond, Martinsville and the All-Star Race at North Wilksboro. “Honestly, we have been pretty good everywhere this year,” he said. “As the season progresses, setups change, and the weather is going to be different than it was earlier in the year. It’s not going to be the same, but I’m confident because we have been good at all the short tracks.” Larson is the book’s biggest liability this week, having been backed by the most total bets (11.1 percent) and money (21.1 percent).
Kevin Harvick (+900)
The defending winner of the race is still seeking his first win of 2023 before retirement. However, Harvick does have the most points among drivers without a victory this year, and his 18 top-five and 30 top-10 finishes are best among active drivers.
Kyle Busch (+1100)
The two-time Cup Series champion has dropped to sixth in the standings with consecutive poor races – a 36th at New Hampshire and 21st at Pocono. He is the active leader six career wins at Richmond, where he has completed all but one of 14,209 laps run in 35 previous starts.
LONGSHOT PICK
Alex Bowman (+3000)
Among drivers who still need a win to secure a playoff spot, Bowman is the only one to have previously visited Victory Lane at Richmond (2021). Bowman, who missed three races earlier this season due to a concussion, is currently 20th in the standings and 46 points out of a playoff spot. He’s the book’s third biggest liability this week, having drawn 4.5 percent of the bets and 6.2 percent of the money since opening at +5000.
–Field Level Media
