The NBA has reached its midway point, with most teams having played half of their 82-game schedules — and we’re finding some betting trends and angles worth pursuing.
In our preseason guide, we tabbed Oklahoma City coach Mark Daigneault (then a +750 play) as a terrific value for NBA Coach of the Year futures. He’s now the favorite at a paltry +115 (odds per DraftKings, unless otherwise noted). Not a ton of value left in that market.
We pointed toward Tyrese Maxey as a prime play for the Most Improved Player award. He was +1100 at the time but now offers virtually no value as a -240 favorite.
So what kind of value in team and individual futures can we find now?
–EASTERN CONFERENCE FUTURES
The Boston Celtics and Milwaukee Bucks appear to be on course to collide in the conference finals.
Not much value in picking a conference champ, with the Celtics at +130 and the Bucks at +200.
The trade deadline is looming, however, so if you believe the Philadelphia 76ers (currently +500) or Miami Heat (+1400) are set to make a big splash and push their respective chips to the middle of the table, jump aboard.
The belief here, though, is that the Celtics are too good, and, should they stumble, the Bucks have too much offense to be stifled in the playoffs.
The best value bet here is to back the 2022-23 NBA MVP, Joel Embiid, to repeat. Earlier this week, he was out there as the fifth choice in this betting market at +800 (at BetMGM, behind Nikola Jokic, Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, Luka Doncic and Giannis Antetokounmpo).
Embiid had seen his odds slip due to some missed games recently. New rules say the MVP must play in at least 65 games and the Sixers big man can’t miss more than seven more games the rest of the way.
Bet on Embiid to stay injury-free and he’s a legit threat, having made his point with a 26-point first half Monday against the Houston Rockets and a 41-point game Tuesday against Jokic and the Nuggets.
Immediately thereafter — unfortunately for value seekers — Embiid shot up to third, just behind Jokic and SGA.
Embiid retains some DraftKings value at +330 but he has sportsbooks concerned, as evidenced by BetMGM dropping him to +275.
As for the reigning NBA Finals MVP, Jokic, the regular-season MVP voters likely felt shamed by Jokic’s big playoff performance and — prior to the Embiid-Jokic matchup — were leaning hard at the Denver star. He was a +165 favorite at BetMGM but now is tied with Gilgeous-Alexander for the top spot at +250.
Keep an eye on the Sixers-Nuggets rematch Jan. 27 in Denver. And on Jokic, who could become the value play if Denver chases home court advantage down the stretch.
The door is open.
–Eastern Conference bonus bet
The Indiana Pacers, who remain on pace to set the NBA’s scoring mark at more than 125 points per game, are among the better first-half stories in the league.
But they’re being solved, little by little, and they fit nicely into a DraftKings market, the “To Participate in Play-in” option.
That means they can’t finish among the top six but also must not finish 11th or worse. They’ve hovered near the Nos. 6-7 spot for the past few weeks and played more at home, 21 to 19 over their first 40 games.
The -110 is a nice coin flip number, and we believe the Pacers aren’t quite good enough to reach the top six but will remain competitive enough to finish in the Nos. 7-10 range.
–WESTERN CONFERENCE FUTURES
More than any team in the West, the Los Angeles Lakers are providing the intrigue and narratives to keep podcasters and sports-talk humming for weeks.
At 20-21 entering Wednesday, the Lakers were on the wrong side of the “to make the playoffs” odds, sitting at +125 this week.
A closer look at the standings, coupled with L.A.’s strong showing Monday against the Oklahoma City Thunder, shows the hill isn’t too steep for an investment.
The Lakers might not finish among the top six, but let’s see what teams they would need to push aside in the play-in process to make the playoffs.
We like OKC, Minnesota, Phoenix, Denver, the L.A. Clippers and Sacramento Kings as the top six, leaving the Lakers to fight it out with Dallas, Utah, New Orleans and perhaps Houston or Golden State for the final two playoff spots to be earned during the play-in tournament.
The Lakers, clearly, will be active in the coming days. One key addition, a little luck and continued chemistry would help dispatch a potential play-in opponent or two.
LeBron James and Anthony Davis have been terrific — and have avoided injuries. Anyone think this team isn’t among the eight best teams in the West?
We’d bet that they will be among those top eight.
–Western Conference bonus bet
This is more a bet against the surging Clippers than anything else.
The James Harden trade and the health of Paul George and Kawhi Leonard have led to L.A.’s push up the standings — but are Harden’s happiness and George/Leonard’s good health sustainable?
The Clippers are +425 to win the conference title and they have helped keep the defending champion Nuggets at a reasonable — and bettable — number.
Grab this deal — Jokic and his guys to make it back to the Finals — at +210 and enjoy Denver’s quest for a repeat.
–Field Level Media
