RBC Capital reported a preview on MSCI Inc. (NYSE:MSCI) ahead of the company’s upcoming Q1/23 earnings report on April 25, expecting an inline quarter driven by low double-digit organic subscription run rate growth, partially offset by the 7% decline in ABF.
In addition, the analysts expect retention of approximately 94%, a 100bps quarter-over-quarter seasonal improvement but down 200bps year-over-year given elevated levels in 2021/2022. Given the tough comps and macro uncertainty, the analysts expect net new recurring subscription sales to be down low-to-mid teens, similar to a 13% year-over-year decline in Q4/22.
The analysts expect the company to reiterate 2023 adjusted EBITDA expense and free cash flow guidance but likely strike a cautious tone for the year as macro nervousness gains more centerstage following recent banking-related events.