Team USA survived a turbulent run through group play and, despite the significant drama, is favored to win the World Baseball Classic as the quarterfinals begin Friday.

The U.S. opened as +140 favorites to win the 2026 WBC, but those odds lengthened to +225 after a loss to Italy, leaving the Dominican Republic as the +175 favorites mid-week. Ironically, that same Italian team provided new life to the U.S. with a victory over Mexico on Wednesday.

Now in single-elimination play, Team USA is a 4.5-run favorite at BetMGM to beat Canada on Friday, with the team’s moneyline sitting at -800 on Friday afternoon. The quarterfinals will kick off with the Dominican Republic also as a 4.5-run favorite over South Korea.

Italy is a -105 favorite against Puerto Rico to begin Saturday’s doubleheader, although the book is not currently offering a run line. The final quarterfinal game will pit Japan as a 1.5-run favorite over Venezuela.

Team USA, again the favorite to win the title at +125, is the book’s biggest liability, having garnered the most total bets (37.8%) and money (51.2%) wagered on the champion. The second biggest liability is the Dominican Republic at 26.7% and 25.2%, respectively.

Next is Japan, which has been backed by 18.0% of the total bets and 12.8% of the total money. However, Shohei Ohtani leads all players in the MVP prop market, drawing 16.8% of the bets and 17.6% of the money while seeing his odds trimmed from +1100 to +500.

WBC WINNER ODDS*
USA (+125)
Dominican Republic (+240)
Japan (+375)
Venezuela (+900)
Puerto Rico (+1800)
Italy (+2000)
Canada (+5000)
Korea (+8000)
*BetMGM

DraftKings has the eight teams in the same order, with Team USA offered at slightly higher odds at +130, followed by the Dominican Republic at +250 and Japan at +370.

–Field Level Media