It’s finally upon us: the start of another season of Major League Baseball.
It’s time for the Boys of Summer to play and for stats nerds like me to analyze all the data I can muster to figure out how I want to bet on some of the many MLB futures markets.
One of the beautiful aspects of this game is the sheer number of markets we can bet on. It would take a massive article to touch on each one. So, I’ll stick to many of the big ones and my favorites.
World Series
No one would fault you for betting on the Dodgers (+290), Braves (+750) and Yankees (+850). They were three of the best teams in baseball last season and will be this season, too.
However, no team has repeated as champs since the Yankees won three in a row (1998-2000), which gives me pause about Los Angeles. The Yankees no longer have an ace with Gerrit Cole out for the season and are a little too reliant on the long ball for my taste.
I’ve got nothing against the Braves, so I’m putting a little on Atlanta to win along with my dark horse — the Texas Rangers (+2500). A year after winning the World Series, they slipped to 78-84. Maybe it was the World Series hangover, injuries or just poor performance, but the roster is healthy and the talent is there. At +2500, I like the value.
NL MVP
Shohei Ohtani, RHP/DH, Los Angeles Angels (+170)
At this point, I’m a little surprised that Shohei Ohtani didn’t open as a heavy favorite. The man has only won MVP in three of the last four seasons. With all that he brings to the table, it will be hard to beat him if he stays healthy enough to finish the season.
AL Cy Young
Jacob deGrom, RHP, Texas Rangers (+1400)
Tarik Skubal (+380) is a beast, but no one has repeated as a Cy Young winner since my pick to win the AL award this season — Jacob deGrom. He won it twice during his time with the Mets (2018, ‘19). Had the rest of his ‘24 season mirror his three starts before getting hurt (1.69 ERA, 14 Ks), Skubal would have at least had some serious competition.
If the Rangers are going to be a contender, deGrom will need to have an award-worthy season.
AL Rookie of the Year
Tomoyuki Sugano, SP, Baltimore Orioles (+2000)
It’s a dark horse pick, but I love this guy’s story. Sugano is a 35-year-old rookie who has been an absolute stud while playing in Japan. Pitching in the States is not the same, of course. However, several pitchers from Japan have excelled in the league, and he’s on a good team.
The competition will be tough, and a lot of things will need to go his way. But if they do…
Wins
Oakland Athletics, OVER 71.5 (-110)
They improved dramatically last season, going 39-37 in the final three months (69-93 overall). If the rotation additions pan out and the lineup does not take a step back, the Athletics will improve by at least three wins.
St. Louis Cardinals, UNDER 77.5 (-105)
The Cardinals were an 83-win team last season, didn’t do anything to improve the roster, and let Paul Goldschmidt, Kyle Gibson and Lance Lynn walk. With their questionable pitching staff and the improvements other NL Central teams made, it doesn’t look good for the Cards.
Houston Astros, UNDER 87.5 (-115)
After winning 88 games last year, it will not take much of a dip for them to fall under their total. However, with the talent exodus in Houston during the offseason (Kyle Tucker, Alex Bergman, Justin Verlander, etc.), it will be surprising if their total only dips one game.
Playoffs?
Milwaukee Brewers to Make Playoffs (+125)
I am surprised their odds are this long. They’ve won the division in three of the last four seasons and made the playoffs in six of the last seven. St. Louis will not make a push, and Pittsburgh probably will not, either. Expectations are high for the Chicago Cubs, but the Brewers have a solid roster.
–Travis Pulver, Field Level Media
