Mizuho continues to back Tesla (NASDAQ:TSLA) despite a disappointing Q1, raising its price target to $375 (from $325) and keeping an Outperform rating, as the low-cost Model Y and Cybercab autonomous vehicle remain key catalysts.
Q1 Results: Expected Miss, Persistent Headwinds
EPS: $0.27 vs. $0.44 consensus
Revenue: $19.3 billion vs. $21.4 billion consensus
Deliveries: 2025 volumes now seen down 8% year-over-year after Tesla withdrew its full-year outlook
Margin Pressure: Automotive margin squeezed by pricing, competition, and slowing sales
These misses were largely anticipated by Mizuho, underscoring the challenges Tesla faces from an aging lineup, stiffer Chinese competition, and brand headwinds tied to CEO Elon Musk’s political profile.
Growth Drivers into 2H 2025 and Beyond
Low-Cost Model Y Launch
Target Date: Still slated for June 2025, despite media reports of a 2026 delay.
Ramp Expectations: Mizuho forecasts a muted, phased production scale-up rather than a sudden surge.
Cybercab Autonomous Robotaxi
Timeline: On track for an early-2026 debut, offering a potential new revenue stream as Tesla leverages its Full Self-Driving tech.
Musk’s Refocus Boosts Sentiment
Elon Musk pledged on the earnings call to curtail his Dogecoin and government duties starting in May, dedicating more of his time to Tesla operations. This commitment sparked a 5.1% jump in TSLA shares after hours.
What Investors Should Watch
Production Metrics: Q2 factory output as Gigafactory retools the Model Y line.
Guidance Updates: Any reinstated or revised delivery targets when Tesla issues its Q2 outlook.
Autonomous Vehicle Progress: Milestones on Cybercab testing and regulatory approvals.
Track Tesla’s Earnings Commentary
For the full Q1 discussion, including management’s outlook on margins and product timelines, refer to Tesla’s? Earnings Transcripts APIfrom Financial Modeling Prep.
Tesla’s path to its next leg of growth hinges on execution around the upcoming Model Y and Cybercab launches—and on Musk’s renewed focus on core operations. With Mizuho’s upgraded price target, investors will be closely monitoring these developments as Tesla navigates a competitive EV landscape.
