Stocks may present buying opportunities in the second half (2H) of 2025, according to JPMorgan strategist Mislav Matejka, although he remains cautious for now due to ongoing macro risks, weak economic data, and uncertainty surrounding trade policy. In his latest strategy note, Matejka emphasized that a more bullish stance will only materialize once certain conditions are met.

“We continue to think that we would be buyers of risk sometime in 2H,” Matejka remarked, but warned that several key factors need to fall into place first.

Key Conditions for a Bullish Stance
For JPMorgan to become more constructive on the stock market, several things need to happen:

Hard data must improve to close the gap with soft data.

Earnings projections need to be reset, and weak guidance needs to be cleared out.

The tariff situation needs to stabilize in the coming months.

Despite some positive data points, such as industrial production and job growth, economic indicators have softened, particularly in the areas of consumer sentiment, labor market perceptions, and future output expectations.
Weekly earnings revisions have dropped to their weakest levels in years, and the number of announced job cuts has reached recessionary levels. Challenger job cuts, often an indicator of economic slowdowns, are now reaching levels typically associated with recessions.
The Ongoing Trade Headwind
Trade remains a significant risk factor for global markets, particularly the U.S., where tariff proposals continue to hang over the market’s outlook. While there has been some easing of extreme tariff proposals, Matejka warns that tariffs are likely to remain much higher than anticipated earlier in the year. JPMorgan economists estimate that current proposals could raise the effective U.S. tariff rate to 23%, which would amount to a $730 billion tax increase (roughly 2.4% of GDP). This would be the largest tariff increase since World War II.
The looming uncertainty around trade tensions and their potential impact on global supply chains and economic growth is a critical consideration for investors. As trade negotiations continue to evolve, keeping an eye on economic data releases, such as those available through the Economic Calendar API, will provide important context for market movements.
Monitoring Market Sentiment and Economic Data
For investors eyeing opportunities in the stock market, key indicators will remain critical in the months ahead. The impact of tariff adjustments, earnings resets, and broader economic shifts will be pivotal in shaping the outlook for 2H 2025. Understanding these factors and their potential effects on global markets is essential, especially as the trade situation continues to evolve.
By staying up to date with relevant market overviews and economic events, investors can be better positioned to navigate the uncertainty and make informed decisions. For instance, tracking market overviews through sources like the FMP Market Overview API offers valuable insights into real-time market conditions and potential shifts.