Bullish Gold Forecast Fuels Rally in European and African Mining Equities
JPMorgan has reiterated its bullish outlook on the Europe, Middle East, and Africa (EMEA) gold mining sector, projecting as much as 60–90% upside for leading miners if gold reaches $4,000 per ounce by mid-2026.
The investment bank’s thesis, led by strategists under Patrick Jones, hinges on rising global demand from central banks, retail investors, and institutional flows chasing inflation hedges and geopolitical stability. Even with EMEA miners having already delivered 20–50% year-to-date gains, JPMorgan believes the current rally is far from over.
Key Drivers Behind the Upside Forecast:

Gold price target: $4,100/oz by 2026

EMEA miners’ EBITDA upside: 40–60% vs 2026 consensus

Valuation rerating potential: 60–90% vs current share prices

Macro tailwinds: Inflation, dollar weakness, and global risk hedging

Fresnillo Remains JPMorgan’s Top Pick with 90% Price Upside
JPMorgan raised its price target on Fresnillo (LON:FRES) to £14.50, citing low execution risk, a strong balance sheet, and superior free cash flow yield. The stock is currently trading at a 4.5–5x EV/EBITDA multiple, with a near 10% FCF yield — well below long-term industry averages.
Under a bullish gold scenario, the strategists assign a fair value of £18.50, suggesting ~90% upside from today’s levels.

“With no projects in execution this year, its near-term production profile is lower risk,” JPMorgan noted, emphasizing stability amid rising commodity volatility.

Data Watch: Company Valuations and Fundamentals
Investors seeking real-time financial analysis of Fresnillo and peers can access the EV/EBITDA valuation and FCF yield data using Financial Modeling Prep’s TTM Ratios API. This offers granular insight into profitability and leverage for gold miners globally.
Hochschild and AngloGold Ashanti Also Re-Rated “Overweight”
Beyond Fresnillo, JPMorgan reaffirmed Overweight ratings on:

Hochschild Mining (LON:HOC) — The bank pointed to a credible turnaround strategy at its Mara Rosa project, as well as longer-term optionality from future developments.

AngloGold Ashanti (NYSE:AU) — JPMorgan cited the stock’s U.S. listing advantage and its lack of exposure to South Africa, making it more comparable to global gold peers.

These companies, trading at significant discounts to intrinsic value, are considered primed for multiple expansion and earnings upgrades as gold prices surge.
Supporting Valuation Models
To model discounted cash flow and forward growth expectations under rising gold scenarios, analysts can utilize the Advanced DCF API. This enables scenario-based valuation modeling incorporating gold price sensitivity, project pipelines, and EBITDA expansion — crucial for commodity-linked equities.
Outlook: Is $4,000 Gold a Stretch?
While JPMorgan’s $4,100/oz gold forecast may seem aggressive, it’s not outside the bounds of possibility given:

Ongoing central bank accumulation (including non-Western institutions)

Persistent global inflationary trends

Growing geopolitical instability across emerging markets and Eastern Europe

Accelerated de-dollarization of global reserves

In such an environment, precious metals remain a haven — and EMEA gold miners, long undervalued relative to North American peers, are poised for a significant re-rating.

Final Thought: With the macro tailwinds aligning and equity valuations still attractive, JPMorgan’s bullish stance on EMEA gold miners highlights a potential high-reward opportunity for investors positioned early in the gold supercycle.