Jefferies analysts downgraded Ford (NYSE:F) from Hold to Underperform, cutting the price target on the stock to $9 from $12. As a result, shares fell more than 3% intra-day today. The move reflected growing concerns over inventory management, strategic uncertainties, and cost pressures that could weigh on the automaker’s near- and long-term performance.
While a potential loosening of emissions regulations under a Trump administration offered some relief, the timing and scope of such changes remained uncertain. Meanwhile, Ford’s inventory levels continued to rise, reaching 96 days in November—26 and 18 days higher than General Motors and Stellantis, respectively—despite a 15% year-over-year increase in U.S. sales. The analysts noted that sustained production has supported the company’s reduced 2024 guidance but could make for a more challenging start to 2025.
Ford also faced critical strategic decisions in the coming quarters. These included the potential need to resize or exit its European operations, which currently contribute about 25% to its 2024 earnings per share. Additionally, the company’s yet-to-be-announced electrification strategy may focus on range-extender vehicles (EREVs), further complicating its EV roadmap. Persistent structural cost issues, combined with an $8.5 billion gap between warranty and quality provisions and actual cash outflows since 2020, added to the pressure.
The analysts highlighted that while Ford’s balance sheet was solid, it offered limited flexibility. Restructuring and warranty-related claims could leave little room for shareholder returns if the company aimed to maintain a conservative financial profile.