Wolfe Research expressed a cautious outlook on Intel (NYSE:INTC), highlighting structural challenges that could hinder its long-term competitiveness as an integrated device manufacturer (IDM). While some hope for a Windows 10 PC refresh cycle in the second half of 2025, not all investors share that optimism given the evolving competitive landscape.
On the PC front, Qualcomm’s low shipment volumes provided a modest reprieve, but NVIDIA’s expected entry into the market was seen as a potential drag on sentiment. Meanwhile, Intel’s server business was projected to face ongoing headwinds, with market growth expected to remain in the low-single digits and continued market share erosion to AMD further pressuring results.
The core concern for Intel, however, centered on its ability to sustain its scale as an IDM. Wolfe suggested Intel may no longer possess the size and efficiency required to maintain the IDM model, making its turnaround increasingly difficult. Moreover, the prospect of leveraging external help from TSMC to offset manufacturing challenges was seen as unlikely given the complexities of such a partnership.
As competitive pressures intensify and operational hurdles persist, Intel faces significant challenges in regaining momentum and addressing its long-term structural limitations.