Most Asian markets’ safe-haven flows lifted gold sharply on Thursday, reversing this week’s pullback amid persistent doubts over a U.S.–China tariff thaw and a fresh Russia–Ukraine clash.
Price Action
Spot Gold: +1.3% to $3,331.34/oz (01:37 ET)
June Futures: +1.4% to $3,341.25/oz
Weekly High: Near the record $3,500/oz set earlier this week
JP Morgan Forecast: Eyes $4,000/oz by 2026
Key Drivers
H3: Trade War Uncertainty
Tariff Talks Stumble: Trump’s conditional promise to lower 145% tariffs on China—only if Beijing approaches Washington—has energized skepticism.
Bessent’s Reality Check: Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent cautioned that trade negotiations will be a “slog,” with no shortcut to de-escalation.
Yuan and Dollar: A weaker dollar amid tariff fears has boosted bullion’s appeal.
H3: Geopolitical Flashpoint
Russia–Ukraine Clash: Renewed hostilities in Eastern Europe sent investors back into traditional havens like gold and the Japanese yen.
H3: Fed Policy Ambiguity
Powell Threats Eased: Trump’s retreat from firing Fed Chair Powell has calmed, but not eliminated, fears about U.S. monetary independence—keeping real rates and gold yields attractive.
What’s Ahead for Gold Traders
Russia–Ukraine Developments: Any escalation could trigger additional safe-haven inflows.
U.S. Trade Announcements: Watch for concrete tariff reduction plans or fresh levies.
Macro Releases:
U.S. CPI/PCE Data: Inflation readings will determine real interest rates.
Flash PMIs: Provide early clues on growth and demand trends.
Stay on Top of Market-Moving Events
Track upcoming economic and geopolitical data—trade negotiations, inflation reports, and central bank meetings—with the? Economics Calendar – Economics Data APIfrom Financial Modeling Prep.This API delivers real-time scheduling and historical context for the indicators driving gold’s next moves.
