Goldman Sachs has updated its forecast for gold prices, pushing the timeline for gold to hit $3,000 per ounce from December 2025 to mid-2026. This adjustment stems from a revised outlook on Federal Reserve rate cuts and other market dynamics.

Key Factors Behind the Revision

Fed Rate Cuts

Goldman now anticipates a 75-basis-point rate cut in 2025, lower than the 100-basis-point reduction initially expected.
Slower rate cuts impact gold demand, particularly from ETFs, delaying the upward momentum.

ETF Demand

A subdued pace of ETF inflows is expected, especially following the resolution of the U.S. elections.
Speculative demand, which had surged pre-election, has since moderated.

Central Bank Demand

Structural demand from central banks remains robust, particularly after geopolitical tensions like the freeze of Russian assets.
Monthly central bank purchases are projected to average 38 tonnes through mid-2026, significantly higher than pre-freeze levels.

Gold Price Projections

Mid-2026: Gold expected to reach $3,000 per ounce.
End-2025: Forecast adjusted to $2,910 per ounce.

Despite the delay, Goldman Sachs maintains a bullish long-term outlook for gold, citing central bank purchases as a key driver.

Risks to the Forecast

Downside Risks

Prolonged high interest rates by the Federal Reserve could weigh on gold prices.

Upside Risks

A U.S. recession or “insurance cuts” by the Fed could accelerate gold’s rise, potentially exceeding the $3,000 target earlier than expected.

Market Insights with FMP APIs
Investors can monitor gold market trends and price drivers using tools like:

Commodities API: Real-time gold prices and other key commodity data.
Economics Calendar API: Track Federal Reserve announcements and economic events impacting gold.

Conclusion
While structural factors like central bank demand support a bullish outlook for gold, macroeconomic uncertainties and ETF flows could influence short-term movements. With tools to track commodities and economic trends, investors can stay informed and make data-driven decisions in this evolving landscape.