Gold prices saw a significant bounce back after hitting a one-month low, despite the Federal Reserve’s recent rate cut. In a highly anticipated move, the Fed reduced interest rates by 25 basis points, bringing the target range to 4.25%-4.50%. While this signals a more cautious path toward easing, gold futures responded negatively to the hawkish comments that accompanied the decision, which suggested a slower pace of cuts in 2025.
The Rebound: Short-Term Optimism, Long-Term Uncertainty
Spot gold surged 1.3%, moving back to $2,618.11, but futures experienced a decline of 1.2%, reflecting investor concerns over future rate adjustments. The Fed’s hawkish tone signals a shift in the economic outlook—despite reducing rates now, projections suggest only two more rate cuts in 2025, down from earlier expectations of four. This slower pace is in response to persistent inflation, which remains a key issue for policymakers.
Gold, historically a hedge against inflation, faces a mixed outlook as inflation continues to prove resilient. While the Fed’s actions may typically bolster gold prices in the short term (due to decreased opportunity costs of holding non-interest-bearing assets like gold), the hawkish stance could signal that future demand for gold as a safe haven will be tempered.
Gold’s Role in 2025 and Beyond
UBS strategists highlight several key drivers that will likely influence gold prices going into 2025, including central banks’ accumulation of gold as part of their diversification strategies. Additionally, investor demand for gold as a hedge against rising inflation and geopolitical tensions remains high.
According to data from the IMF, global central banks’ net gold purchases have surged, reaching the highest monthly levels in 2024. UBS expects this trend to continue, forecasting 900 metric tons of gold purchases in 2025.
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Conclusion: Gold’s Mixed Future Amid Slower Rate Cuts
In the long term, while gold remains a vital asset for many portfolios, its growth could be stunted by a more measured approach to rate cuts. The Fed’s cautious outlook suggests that while gold has room for short-term growth, its safe-haven appeal might be reduced as economic conditions stabilize and equities become more attractive.