GLJ Research’s Gordon Johnson warns that Wall Street’s consensus for Tesla (NASDAQ:TSLA) second?quarter delivery growth may be significantly overstated, given rising trade tensions and early sales data indicating slowdowns in key regions.
Key Takeaways from GLJ Research
Consensus vs. Reality
“The best investing opportunities arise when there are dislocations between what Consensus expects vs. what is most likely to happen,” writes Johnson, suggesting a material gap for Tesla deliveries.
Challenging Projections
Johnson critiques independent analyst Troy Teslike’s forecast of:
27% quarter?over?quarter growth in Europe
25% growth in China
15% growth in the U.S.
41% growth in Other Markets
He points to Tesla’s own data showing a 32.3% year?on?year decline in China deliveries in the first half of the quarter.
Trade War Headwinds
2018 Precedent
The 2018 U.S.?China trade war imposed a 25% reciprocal tariff on U.S.?made vehicles, materially denting Tesla’s competitiveness.
Current Tensions
With tariffs now at 145% on some Chinese exports and Beijing retaliating, Johnson warns that similar forces could again hamper Tesla’s global delivery volumes.
Brand Sentiment in Europe
Elon Musk’s Polarizing Image
Musk’s favorability in Europe is near record lows—net –53 in the U.K. and –52 in Germany (YouGov, Jan 2025)—potentially curbing demand in a critical market.
Looking Ahead: Earnings and Delivery Announcements
Earnings as a Catalyst
Tesla’s Q2 earnings release will provide official delivery figures and management commentary, a crucial test of these forecasts.
Track the Date
Investors can monitor Tesla’s upcoming earnings date via the? Earnings Calendar API from Financial Modeling Prep, which lists scheduled reports and actual delivery statistics once released.
Johnson’s analysis underscores a potential disconnect between bullish delivery models and on?the?ground sales data, suggesting investors should prepare for a possible downward revision in Tesla’s Q2 performance.
