As the gig economy gears up for Q4 2024 earnings reports, investors are closely watching key trends that could shape the industry’s trajectory in 2025. Analysts at Moffett Nathanson have highlighted six critical areas that will impact companies like Uber (NYSE:UBER), DoorDash (NASDAQ:DASH), and Instacart (NASDAQ:CART).
1. Rideshare Growth Slowing After Full Recovery
The U.S. rideshare industry rebounded fully in early 2024, but analysts expect a slowdown ahead. Industry trip growth is projected to remain slightly above the 2019 exit rate of 9.4% in early 2025 but is anticipated to dip into single digits, ending the year at 9.3%.
A major factor behind this slowdown is elevated pricing. Ride costs remain approximately 40% higher than in 2019, raising concerns about whether demand can sustain long-term growth at these levels. Investors will be watching for pricing adjustments and changes in consumer behavior in upcoming earnings reports.
To track industry financials and key performance metrics, investors can refer to the Earnings Calendar.
2. Uber Eats vs. DoorDash: Market Share Battle Intensifies
Uber Eats had a strong 2024, partly due to Grubhub’s struggles, but competition is heating up. Uber’s exclusive partnership with Domino’s expires in Q1 2025, and analysts expect DoorDash to capitalize on this, potentially reclaiming market share.
If Uber One continues driving customer retention, the company could maintain its momentum. However, if DoorDash regains market dominance, it could reshape the food delivery landscape. Investors will look at order volumes, revenue growth, and promotional activity to gauge the impact of these competitive shifts.
For insights into financial trends in the sector, the Earnings Historical API provides past performance data.
3. Grocery Delivery and Instacart’s Competitive Moat
Instacart’s market position faces growing threats from Uber and DoorDash, which have been aggressively partnering with major grocery chains. Analysts point to the risk of Instacart losing exclusive relationships with major retailers such as Kroger (NYSE:KR), Publix, and Sam’s Club.
If DoorDash and Uber continue expanding their grocery offerings, Instacart may be forced to increase incentives to retain customers and grocers, potentially impacting its profitability.
4. Immigration Policies and Gig Workforce Supply
The availability of drivers and couriers in the U.S. has been bolstered by relaxed border policies under the Biden administration. However, tighter immigration laws could increase costs for gig platforms by making hiring more expensive.
Companies like Uber and DoorDash have already implemented stronger identity verification measures, but any significant labor shortages could impact service availability and pricing.
5. Uber’s International Mobility Growth Slowing
Uber’s international mobility segment has been a major earnings driver, but its growth is slowing. Year-over-year constant currency growth in gross bookings decelerated from 36.7% in Q2 2024 to 30.0% in Q3 2024. Analysts expect this trend to persist into early 2025 before a potential reacceleration later in the year.
Conclusion
The gig economy’s Q4 2024 earnings season will offer crucial insights into industry dynamics, competitive positioning, and macroeconomic challenges. Investors should watch for signals on rideshare pricing sustainability, food delivery market shifts, and labor supply constraints.
With growth trajectories shifting, keeping an eye on financial metrics through resources like the Earnings Calendar and Earnings Historical APIs can help make informed investment decisions.