Stifel Nicolaus analyst Chris O’Cull has lowered the price target for NASDAQ:FWRG to $17, indicating a potential upside of approximately 6.32%.
The company has reduced its EBITDA forecast due to rising cost pressures, reflecting operational challenges.
Despite a decrease in EBITDA guidance and challenges in comparable sales, First Watch sees an improvement in dine-in traffic.

First Watch Restaurant Group, Inc. (NASDAQ:FWRG) is a prominent player in the restaurant industry, known for its breakfast, brunch, and lunch offerings. The company operates a chain of restaurants across the United States, focusing on fresh ingredients and a welcoming dining experience. As of May 7, 2025, Stifel Nicolaus analyst Chris O’Cull set a price target of $17 for FWRG, down from a previous target of $18, as highlighted by TheFly. At the time, the stock was trading at $15.99, indicating a potential upside of approximately 6.32%.

The adjustment in the price target by Stifel’s Chris O’Cull comes in response to First Watch’s weaker-than-expected Q1 comparable sales. Despite maintaining its full-year revenue guidance, the company has significantly lowered its EBITDA forecast due to rising cost pressures. EBITDA, or Earnings Before Interest, Taxes, Depreciation, and Amortization, is a measure of a company’s overall financial performance. The reduction in EBITDA guidance reflects the challenges First Watch faces in managing its operational costs.

Stifel attributes the stock’s sharp decline to high expectations for comparable sales prior to the earnings report and the substantial reduction in EBITDA guidance. The aggressive revenue outlook also plays a role in the stock’s performance. Despite these challenges, First Watch has seen an improvement in dine-in traffic in April. However, Stifel emphasizes the importance of the company’s marketing strategies in consistently boosting traffic without negatively affecting the average check size.

Currently, FWRG is priced at $15.99, reflecting an increase of 4.31% with a change of $0.66. The stock has fluctuated between a low of $14.85 and a high of $16.05 today. Over the past year, it has reached a high of $22.71 and a low of $12.90. With a market capitalization of approximately $974.89 million, First Watch remains a significant player in the restaurant industry. The trading volume for the day is 2,381,077 shares on the NASDAQ exchange, indicating active investor interest.