A team from outside of Europe has not won the World Cup since 2002, but the public is expecting that to change in Qatar this year.
Brazil is the pre-tournament favorite, including being offered at +350 by BetMGM and +375 by BetRivers. Fellow South American powerhouse Argentina is next at +500 and +540, respectively.
Argentina is BetMGM’s second-biggest liability ahead of the World Cup opener on Sunday, leading the sportsbook in drawing 13 percent of the total tickets and 23 percent of the money while the country’s odds have shortened from opening at +1000. Brazil opened at +500 and is second with 13 and 19 percent of the action, respectively.
The only bigger liability at BetMGM is the United States, which has been backed by 11 percent of the tickets while the USMNT’s odds of winning the Cup have lengthened from +8000 to +1000.
Argentina has also been popular at BetRivers, where it has drawn the most money at 18.3 percent of the pool. Brazil leads with 16.5 percent of the total tickets, but Argentina’s odds would be even shorter if not for a potential knockout round match against reigning champion France.
France is being offered at +700 by the sportsbook and is third with 11.3 percent of the tickets and 10.6 percent of the money backing the European team to repeat.
“If France wins its group, Argentina will face Denmark and is likely to be made the favorite to win the World Cup,” said Nigel Seeley, host of the Betting Weekly podcast series who is covering the event for BetRivers. “So Argentina bettors should be cheering for France to win its group.”
Argentina superstar Lionel Messi is a predictable popular pick to win the Golden Boot award as the tournament’s leading scorer. In what is expected to be his final World Cup, Messi is being backed by 38 percent of the tickets and 50.2 percent of the money at BetRivers. He is also drawn 42.8 and 79.8 percent of the action, respectively, to win the Golden Ball award for MVP of the finalist and 26.6 and 28.4 percent to lead the tournament in assists.
The top five wagers in popular categories at BetRivers:
Most popular plays by total money in teams’ opening matches
1. USA ML (+160) vs. Wales
2. Germany-Japan Over 2.5 goals (-150)
3. Argentina ML (-530) vs. Saudi Arabia
4. England ML (-278) vs. Iran
5. Mexico-Poland Over 2.5 goals (+150)
Most popular plays by total tickets in teams’ opening matches
1. Netherlands ML (-155) vs. Senegal
2. Denmark ML (-210) vs. Tunisia
3. England ML (-278) vs. Iran
4. Germany ML (-195) vs. Japan
5. Argentina ML (-530) vs. Saudi Arabia
Most popular teams to win the Cup by percentage of money
1. Argentina (+525) — 18.3%
2. Brazil (+375) — 13.7%
3. France (+700) — 10.6%
4. USA (+22500) — 9.7%
5. England (+1000) — 7.3%
6. Germany (+1150) — 6.9%
7. Portugal (+1800) — 5.9%
8. Spain (+850) — 4.5%
9. Belgium (+1900) — 3.6%
10. Mexico (+18000) — 3.5%
Most popular teams to win the Cup by percentage of tickets
1. Brazil (+375) — 16.5%
2. Argentina (+525) — 11.8%
3. France (+700) — 11.3%
4. Spain (+850) — 8.9%
5. England (+1000) — 8.3%
6. USA (+22500) — 8.1%
7. Germany (+1150) — 8.0%
8. Belgium (+1900) — 4.0%
9. Mexico (+18000) — 3.5%
10. Portugal (+1800) — 3.2%
Biggest liabilities to BetRivers
1. USA to win World Cup (+22500)
2. Mexico to win World Cup (+18000)
3. Canada to win World Cup (+32500)
4. Ghana to win World Cup (+37500)
5. Switzerland to win World Cup (+13000)
Most popular group winners by percentage of all group finishing position money
1. England Group B (-265) — 32.8%
2. Netherlands Group A (-225) — 7.8%
3. Brazil Group G (-305) — 7.2%
4. France Group D (-215) — 6.7%
5. Argentina Group C (-250) — 6.4%
Most popular group winners by percentage of all group finishing position tickets
1. France Group D (-215) — 12.9%
2. Argentina Group C (-250) — 11.2%
3. Netherlands Group A (-225) — 10.1%
4. England Group B (-265) — 8.6%
5. Brazil Group G (-305) — 8.3%
Strongest public winner of each group by percentage of group money
Group A: Netherlands (-225) — 73.4%, Senegal (+450) — 18.5%
Group B: England (-265) — 84.0%, USA (+500) — 14.5%
Group C: Argentina (-250) — 82.1%, Mexico (+450) — 9.4%
Group D: France (-215) — 56.5%, Denmark (+250) — 23.0%
Group E: Germany (+115) — 69.3%, Spain (-112) — 20.9%
Group F: Belgium (-155) — 60.4%, Croatia (+225) — 24.8%
Group G: Brazil (-305) — 66.6%, Serbia (+600) — 16.0%
Group H: Portugal (-148) — 47.9%, Uruguay (+185) — 47.6%
Strongest public winner of each group by percentage of group tickets
Group A: Netherlands (-225) — 64.9%, Senegal (+450) — 25.3%
Group B: England (-265) — 65.7%, USA (+500) — 24.8%
Group C: Argentina (-250) — 69.7%, Poland (+550) — 17.4%
Group D: France (-215) — 81.8%, Denmark (+250) — 16.8.%
Group E: Germany (+115) — 75.7%, Spain (-112) — 22.2%
Group F: Belgium (-155) — 55.5%, Croatia (+225) — 36.2%
Group G: Brazil (-305) — 76.8%, Serbia (+600) — 12.7%
Group H: Portugal (-148) — 52.0%, Uruguay (+185) — 41.6%
Most popular players to be top goal scorer by percentage of money
1. Lionel Messi, ARG (+1100) — 17.7%
2. Kylian Mbappe, FRA (+1000) — 16.8%
3. Neymar, BRZ (+1400) — 10.9%
4. Karim Benzema, FRA (+1800) — 10.4%
5. Lautaro Martinez, ARG (+2100) — 10.3%
Most popular players to be top goal scorer by percentage of tickets
1. Kylian Mbappe, FRA (+1000) — 12.3%
2. Lionel Messi, ARG (+1100) — 12.1%
3. Neymar, BRZ (+1400) — 11.3%
4. Karim Benzema, FRA (+1800) — 8.4%
5. Lautaro Martinez, ARG (+2100) — 7.6%
–Field Level Media
