Needham reaffirmed its Buy rating on DraftKings (NASDAQ:DKNG) with a $65 price target, despite trimming near-term estimates due to March Madness-related betting outcomes.
The firm cut its Q1 adjusted EBITDA forecast by $70 million, noting that unfavorable game results during the NCAA tournament more than offset the positive boost seen from the Super Bowl. As a result, the new projection now falls below the company’s current full-year EBITDA guidance. However, Needham expects momentum to return in Q2, helped in part by early surprises such as Duke’s exit from the tournament.
Despite the short-term volatility, Needham emphasized that sports outcomes are inherently unpredictable, and therefore these fluctuations shouldn’t impact the longer-term view. The firm noted that recent investor conversations have centered on bearish themes including slowing handle growth, potential recession, increased state tax burdens, competition from prediction markets, and structural hold questions.
Yet, Needham believes these concerns are either overstated or manageable over time. With shares under pressure recently, the firm views the pullback as a buying opportunity for investors focused on the long term, especially as DraftKings continues to scale and build competitive advantages in the growing online sports betting and iGaming markets.