Greenback’s Brief Rally and Broader Downtrend
At 08:40 ET, the Dollar Index rose 0.2% to 99.012, clawing back part of last week’s losses after dipping to a three-year low. Despite this uptick—driven by signs of easing U.S. tariff risk—The Index is still down 4.6% for April, its worst monthly drop since November 2022.
Analysts at Bank of America Securities note that last week’s dollar bounce occurred during U.S. trading hours, but structural dollar supply pressures resurfaced in Asia, suggesting the retracement is temporary.
Fading Rallies and Targeting AUD/USD Strength
BofA recommends fading dollar rallies and turning to AUD/USD for upside exposure. The pair has recovered to around 0.64, yet remains well within its recent trading band—unlike EUR/USD and USD/CAD, which show more stretched moves. Near-term catalysts for AUD strength include:

Bullish option flow in AUD

A potential upside surprise in Q1 Australian CPI

Should these align, AUD/USD could breach 0.64 and test its 200-day simple moving average near 0.6462.
Intraday and daily FX shifts—particularly in AUD/USD—can be tracked seamlessly using the Daily Forex API, which offers real-time rates across G10 pairs.