Four teams enter the 2024 NBA Draft lottery on Sunday with better than 13 percent odds of landing the No. 1 pick, but the prize holds relatively modest value one year after Victor Wembanyama arrived from France.
The Detroit Pistons and Washington Wizards share the top odds — 14 percent — ahead of the Charlotte Hornets and Portland Trail Blazers, who picked second and third behind the San Antonio Spurs last June. The Spurs scored the No. 1 pick, selected Wembanyama, and hold the fifth-best chance (10.5 percent) at getting the first overall pick in the 2024 draft via the lottery.
The 2024 NBA Draft begins June 26, with the second round held the next day.
Since the lottery rules changed in 2019, each of the four teams to win the lottery and No. 1 pick entered with 14 percent odds to land the pick. The first year under the competitive balance rules in 2020, the Timberwolves won the lottery and selected Georgia’s Anthony Edwards.
While any team in the NBA would’ve welcomed a chance to bring Edwards or Wembanyama on board, there’s a bit of a red-headed stepchild narrative around the 2024 draft class.
The order of draft selections for lottery teams — the 14 teams not in the NBA playoffs — will be assigned mid-afternoon (3 p.m. ET, ABC) on Mother’s Day. Final positioning in the lottery was determined after the regular season based on record with the NBA settling tiebreaks involving teams with identical regular-season records.
Detroit drafted first overall in 2021 (Cade Cunningham) and fifth in 2022 (Jaden Ivey) and 2023 (Ausar Thompson). The Pistons find themselves back in this position following a league-worst 14-68 finish to the regular season.
Equal chances for the No. 1 pick belong to the Wizards. Washington last won the lottery in 2010, selecting Kentucky point guard John Wall.
The Hornets picked first once — in 1991, when they selected UNLV’s Larry Johnson — but have drafted outside of the lottery only once in the past 23 years. Charlotte selected Brandon Miller No. 2 overall in 2023 and LaMelo Ball with the third pick in 2020.
Greg Oden was the Trail Blazers’ pick at No. 1 in 2007 and Portland hasn’t been back in the top spot since. Point guard Scoot Henderson went at No. 3 to Portland in 2023. Kentucky shooting guard Shaedon Sharpe (seventh overall, 2022) and Lehigh guard CJ McCollum (10th overall, 2013) were the only other top-10 draft picks for the franchise since Oden.
Sporting the best record in the West in the regular season and playing in the conference semifinals, trade-happy Oklahoma City maintains two chances in the lottery as owed compensation in previous swaps with the Utah Jazz (6 percent chance at No. 1 pick) and Houston Rockets (1.5 percent odds at No. 1 pick). Because of pick protections placed on the trade, the Thunder would receive Utah’s selection only if it’s Nos. 11-14.
Likewise, the pick from Houston is protected — meaning the Rockets can push the trade to next year — if it’s in the top four.
The Spurs could score a second lottery pick as part of the return due from the Toronto Raptors for acquiring Jakob Poeltl.
–Field Level Media
