UBS has reaffirmed its Buy rating on ExxonMobil (NYSE: XOM), maintaining a $130 price target as the energy giant prepares to report its second-quarter earnings. The firm projects adjusted earnings per share (EPS) of $1.66 for Q2 2025, surpassing Wall Street’s consensus estimate of $1.52. This optimistic outlook underscores ExxonMobil’s ability to deliver robust operational results even as fluctuating commodity prices create headwinds for the sector.
Analysts anticipate adjusted upstream net income of $5.16 billion, a $1.59 billion decline from the previous quarter but still above the consensus estimate of $4.71 billion. Total production volumes are expected to reach 4.57 million barrels of oil equivalent per day (mmboepd), aligning with market expectations. The sequential earnings dip is primarily attributed to lower oil and gas prices, with Brent crude dropping approximately $8 per barrel—a move expected to reduce upstream earnings by $1.3 billion.
Further pressure comes from declining natural gas prices, with Henry Hub down $0.20 per mmbtu and European TTF prices falling $2.50 per mmbtu, contributing an additional $160 million drag. UBS also noted the absence of a $100 million boost from divestment-related gains that had bolstered earnings in the prior quarter.
Despite these near-term challenges, UBS remains confident in ExxonMobil’s operational strength and long-term prospects. The firm highlighted the company’s ability to navigate volatile market conditions while maintaining consistent performance. With a focus on efficiency and strategic execution, ExxonMobil is well-positioned to weather cyclical downturns and capitalize on future growth opportunities.
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