JPMorgan (JPM) has reaffirmed its bearish outlook on Tesla Inc. (NASDAQ: TSLA), maintaining an Underweight rating and a $115 price target, amid growing signs of weakening global demand. The investment bank also sharply revised its Q2 2025 vehicle delivery forecast, now predicting just 360,000 units—marking a 19% decline year-over-year and falling well below Wall Street expectations.
This latest estimate reflects a substantial downgrade from JPMorgan’s previous projection of 395,000 deliveries issued in April. The new figure lags consensus expectations by 8%, with analysts broadly forecasting around 392,000 deliveries. It also underperforms Tesla’s own consensus compilation of 385,000 by approximately 6.5%.
According to JPMorgan, the downward revision is based on a combination of third-party industry estimates, insurance registration data in China through late June, and sales trends in key international markets such as Europe, where data tends to be more reliable. Analysts pointed to sluggish momentum in several of Tesla’s core markets, indicating that the electric vehicle maker may be facing deeper structural demand issues rather than temporary headwinds.
The analysis amplifies JPMorgan’s broader concern: that Tesla is struggling to sustain demand amid rising competition, shifting EV incentives, and a potential plateau in consumer interest in premium electric vehicles. If the firm’s projections hold, Tesla’s Q2 delivery shortfall would mark one of its steepest declines in recent quarters, further pressuring its growth narrative and long-term valuation.
From an investor standpoint, JPMorgan’s stance suggests heightened caution. The bank’s $115 price target implies limited upside—especially as Tesla’s stock has already faced volatility due to slower delivery growth, margin compression, and investor concerns over CEO Elon Musk’s focus on side ventures like xAI and Twitter.
CWEB Business News Opinion & Analysis:
Tesla’s delivery trajectory appears to be at an inflection point. While once viewed as the undisputed leader in EV innovation, the brand now contends with mounting competition from Chinese automakers like BYD and legacy brands like Ford and GM aggressively scaling their EV programs. Additionally, the broader macroeconomic environment—characterized by higher interest rates and tightening credit—has made big-ticket purchases like vehicles more sensitive to consumer hesitation.
JPMorgan’s call isn’t just a numerical downgrade; it reflects deeper questions about Tesla’s ability to maintain market dominance without introducing more competitively priced models or refreshing aging vehicle lineups. The lack of new volume-driven products combined with aggressive price cuts to maintain demand could erode profitability over time.
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